Summary1. An 8-year-field experiment on moorland in northern England manipulated the abundance of legally controllable predators whilst maintaining consistent habitat conditions. Subsequent changes in both the breeding success and abundance of five ground-nesting bird species were monitored: lapwing Vanellus vanellus, golden plover Pluvialis apricaria, curlew Numenius arquata, red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus and meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the abundance only of snipe Gallinago gallinago and skylark Alauda arvensis. 2. Control of fox Vulpes vulpes, carrion crow Corvus corone, stoat Mustela ermina and weasel Mustela nivalis reduced the abundance of fox ()43%) and crow ()78%); no changes were detected in already low stoat or weasel abundances. 3. Reductions in foxes and crows led to an average threefold increase in breeding success of lapwing, golden plover, curlew, red grouse and meadow pipit. 4. Predator control led to subsequent increases in breeding numbers ( ‡14% per annum) of lapwing, curlew, golden plover and red grouse, all of which declined in the absence of predator control ( ‡17% per annum). 5. Synthesis and applications. Controlling predators is a potentially important management tool for conserving a range of threatened species. Considerable sums of public monies are currently spent on habitat improvement for conservation and some of these public funds should be used to underpin habitat works with predator removal.

Summary1. Breeding birds, vegetation and moorland management were surveyed in 320 1-km squares on 122 estates in upland areas of eastern Scotland and northern England where red grouse shooting is a widespread land use. We assessed whether population densities of 11 species of breeding birds differed between heather-dominated moorland managed for red grouse shooting and other moorland with similar vegetation. 2. We classified estates that had a full-time equivalent moorland gamekeeper as grouse moors. The mean density of red grouse shot per year was four times higher and the mean density of gamekeepers was three times higher on grouse moors than on other moors. Rotational burning of ground vegetation covered a 34% larger area on grouse moors than on other moors. 3. Selection of heather-dominated squares resulted in similar composition of vegetation on grouse moors and other moors (about 76% heath, 12% grass, 8% bog, 2% flush and < 1% bracken on both types). However, grouse moors tended to have less tall vegetation than other moors and differed significantly in some other characteristics of the vegetation, topography and soil type. 4. Densities of breeding golden plover and lapwing were five times higher and those of red grouse and curlew twice as high on grouse moors as on other moors, while meadow pipit, skylark, whinchat and carrion/hooded crow were 1·5, 2·3, 3·9 and 3·1 times less abundant, respectively, on grouse moors. The differences in density between moorland types remained significant ( P < 0·001) for golden plover and crow and approached significance ( P < 0·10) for lapwing and meadow pipit after allowing for variation among regions. 5. We used Poisson regression models to relate bird density to vegetation cover, topography, climate and soil type. After adjusting for significant effects of these habitat variables, significant differences in bird density between the two moorland types remained for six species, although their magnitude was reduced. 6. Correlations of adjusted bird density with measures of different aspects of grouse moor management provided evidence of a possible positive influence of predator control (assessed using crow density) on red grouse, golden plover and lapwing. The control of crows by gamekeepers is the most probable cause of the low densities of crows on grouse moors. There was evidence of a positive effect of heather burning on the density of red grouse and golden plover and a negative effect on meadow pipit. Multiple Poisson regression indicated that predator control and heather burning had significant separate effects on red grouse density. Significant relationships between adjusted breeding bird densities and the abundance of raptors and ravens were few and predominantly positive.

Herbarium specimens provide verifiable and citable evidence of the occurrence of particular plants at particular points in space and time, and are vital resources for assessing extinction risk in the tropics, where plant diversity and threats to plants are greatest. We reviewed approaches to assessing extinction risk in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Strategy for Plant Conservation Target 2: an assessment of the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020. We tested five alternative approaches, using herbarium-derived data for trees, shrubs and herbs in five different plant groups from temperate and tropical regions. All species were previously fully assessed for the IUCN Red List. We found significant variation in the accuracy with which different approaches classified species as threatened or not threatened. Accuracy was highest for the machine learning model (90%) but the least data-intensive approach also performed well (82%). Despite concerns about spatial, temporal and taxonomic biases and uncertainties in herbarium data, when specimens represent the best available evidence for particular species, their use as a basis for extinction risk assessment is appropriate, necessary and urgent. Resourcing herbaria to maintain, increase and disseminate their specimen data is essential to guide and focus conservation action.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene’.

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The number of capercaillie in Scotland has fallen since the 1970s. Previous work showed that low breeding success, exacerbated by deaths of fully grown birds flying into forest fences, was the primary cause of the decline. The hypothesis that climate change caused the lower breeding success was investigated in this study. Temperature usually rose during April. There was no trend in mean April temperature during the study (1975–99) but there was a progressive cooling in mid‐April relative to the rest of the month, such that the normal April warming was increasingly delayed. Hens reared more chicks when the temperature rose more in early April. It is suggested that this stimulated timely plant growth, so improving the laying hens’ plane of nutrition and the viability of their chicks. Hens also reared more chicks when late May was warmer and early June was warmer and had fewer rain days. Young chicks may have foraged more successfully in warm dry conditions. However, neither temperature nor rain days in late May or early June showed any trend during the study. Increasingly protracted spring warming seems to have been a major cause of the decline of the capercaillie in Scotland.

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Summary 1.The capercaillie Tetrao urogallus and black grouse Tetrao tetrix are declining in the UK, and low breeding success has been identified as the key factor in the decline of the former. To investigate possible causes, breeding productivity was studied in relation to predation, weather, vegetation changes and deer numbers over an 11-year period (1989-99) within native pinewood at Abernethy Forest, Scotland. The abundance of predators (crows Corvus corone and red foxes Vulpes vulpes ) was experimentally manipulated in 1992-96 by culling. Productivity (chicks reared per female) was compared between forests with and without experimental predator management. 2. During predator control, the number of breeding crows was reduced from 10 pairs to one. The attempted reduction in red fox abundance was unsuccessful; only small numbers of adults were killed, and neither scat nor den counts declined significantly. 3. Predation on artificial nests containing six hen eggs and a hen egg filled with wax was measured as an index of predator activity from 1991 to 1999. Predation was lowest during the last three years of predator control, 1994-96. Predators could sometimes be distinguished by signs on depredated eggs. Predation on artificial nests by crows was highest during 1991-93. However, after predator removal stopped in 1997 few crows returned, and increased predation on artificial nests did not involve increased signs of crow predation. Pine marten Martes martes numbers increased during the study period and became significant predators of artificial nests. 4. The total number of capercaillie eggs and nests depredated by crows was estimated from the number of depredated capercaillie eggs found and the proportion of crowpredated hen eggs in artificial nests. The values ranged from 18 to 158 eggs over 3 years, equivalent to 3-23 capercaillie nests year − 1 . 5. Capercaillie productivity was low (< 1 chick per female) during 1989-93 and 1997-99 but higher during 1994 -96. Compared with nine other forests in Scotland, changes in capercaillie productivity at Abernethy were different. Productivity at Abernethy was negatively related to June rainfall, and to the minimum daily predation rate on artificial nests by crows. There was also a significant interaction in that capercaillie were most productive when low rainfall coincided with low predation by crows on artificial nests. 6. The productivities of black grouse and capercaillie were positively correlated, but greater in the former. As in capercaillie, black grouse productivity was negatively related both to June rainfall and the minimum daily predation rate on artificial nests by crows, and there was an interaction. 7. Synthesis and applications . The long-term increase in crows and red foxes and the predicted increase in rainfall in Scotland may have negative effects on capercaillie and black grouse. In the short term, control of crows is likely to improve productivity. In the long term, increased woodland size and some reversal of fragmentation might decrease the access...

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