Abstract-Objective:To review the risk of MS exacerbations after infectious episodes potentially preventable by vaccination, and the risks and benefits of immunizing patients with MS. Methods: The authors searched MEDLINE (1966 to January 2001; U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD), HealthSTAR, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) database (Cinahl Information Systems, Glendale, CA) for English-language articles. Each study was summarized and rated for quality of evidence. Then feasible data were pooled and analyzed in metaanalysis. Results: The risk of contracting common infectious diseases in patients with MS is not well established. There is strong evidence for an increased risk of MS exacerbations during weeks around an infectious episode. There is strong evidence against an increased risk of MS exacerbation after influenza immunization. There is no evidence that hepatitis B, varicella, tetanus, or Bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccines increase the risk of MS exacerbations. Insufficient evidence was found for other vaccines. Conclusions: Evidence supports 1) strategies to minimize the risk of acquiring infectious diseases that may trigger exacerbations of MS; and 2) the safety of using influenza, hepatitis B, varicella, tetanus, and Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccines in patients with MS. NEUROLOGY 2002;59:1837-1843 Although the direct or the indirect pathogenic role of numerous infectious agents is debated, 1,2 there is evidence that MS exacerbations occur around infectious episodes, which could potentially be prevented by vaccination. 3,4 However, there are concerns about the safety of immunization in patients with MS, particularly about the risk of relapses after vaccination. To address these concerns, the MS Council for Clinical Practice Guidelines commissioned a systematic review to obtain background for guidelines on immunization and convened an expert panel to establish guidelines. This systematic review has three objectives. First, we aim to provide the information on the need to vaccinate patients with MS by evaluating the risk of MS exacerbation after potentially preventable infections. Second, we review the available evidence on safety and efficacy of vaccines in patients with MS. Finally, we provide an overview of the guidelines for vaccinating patients with MS. Two topic questions were formulated to address the need to vaccinate patients with MS: 1) Are vaccine-preventable infectious diseases more frequent in patients with MS than in the general population? 2) Do vaccine-preventable infectious diseases increase the risk of MS exacerbations?Two other topic questions addressed the risks and the benefits of immunizing patients with MS: 3) Does vaccination increase the risk of exacerbations of MS, and is there a difference in this risk between live attenuated and inactivated vaccines? 4) Are vaccines as effective in patients with MS as in the general population?Search strategy and inclusion process. We reviewed English language MEDLINE (from 1966 to
Predictions of cost over well-defined time horizons are frequently required in the analysis of clinical trials and social experiments, for decision models investigating the cost-effectiveness of interventions, and for macro-level estimates of the resource impact of disease. With rare exceptions, cost predictions used in such applications continue to take the form of deterministic point estimates. However, the growing availability of large administrative and clinical data sets offers new opportunities for a more general approach to disease cost forecasting: the estimation of multivariable cost functions that yield predictions at the individual level, conditional on intervention(s), patient characteristics, and other factors. This raises the fundamental question of how to choose the "best" cost model for a given application. The central purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how to evaluate competing models on the basis of predictive validity. This concept is operationalized according to three alternative criteria: 1) root mean square error (RMSE), for evaluating predicted mean cost; 2) mean absolute error (MAE), for evaluating predicted median cost; and 3) a logarithmic scoring rule (log score), an information-theoretic index for evaluating the entire predictive distribution of cost. To illustrate these concepts, the authors conducted a split-sample analysis of data from a national sample of Medicare-covered patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke in 1991 and followed to the end of 1993. Using test and training samples of about 500,000 observations each, they investigated five models: single-equation linear models, with and without log transform of cost; two-part (mixture) models, with and without log transform, to directly address the problem of zero-cost observations; and a Cox proportional-hazards model stratified by time interval. For deriving the predictive distribution of cost, the log transformed two-part and proportional-hazards models are superior. For deriving the predicted mean or median cost, these two models and the commonly used log-transformed linear model all perform about the same. The untransformed models are dominated in every instance. The approaches to model selection illustrated here can be applied across a wide range of settings.
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted hospitals to respond with stringent measures. Accurate estimates of costs and resources used in outbreaks can guide evaluations of responses. We report the financial expenditure associated with COVID-19, the bed-days used for COVID-19 patients and hospital services displaced due to COVID-19 in a Singapore tertiary hospital. Methods We conducted a retrospective cost analysis from January to December 2020 in the largest public hospital in Singapore. Costs were estimated from the hospital perspective. We examined financial expenditures made in direct response to COVID-19; hospital admissions data related to COVID-19 inpatients; and the number of outpatient and emergency department visits, non-emergency surgeries, inpatient days in 2020, compared to preceding years of 2018 and 2019. Bayesian time-series was used to estimate the magnitude of displaced services. Results USD$41.96 million was incurred in the hospital for COVID-19 related expenses. Facilities setup and capital assets counted for 51.6% of the expenditure; patient-care supplies comprised 35.1%. Out of the 19,611 inpatients tested for COVID-19 in 2020, 727 (3.7%) had COVID-19. The total inpatient- and ICU-days for COVID-19 patients in 2020 were 8,009 and 8 days respectively. A decline in all hospital services were observed from February following a raised disease outbreak alert level; most services quickly resumed when the lockdown was lifted in June. Conclusion COVID-19 has led to increase in healthcare expenses and displacement in hospital services. Our findings are useful for informing economic evaluations of COVID-19 response and provide some information about the expected costs of future outbreaks.
Background: Neoadjuvant imatinib for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) of the rectum can reduce, but may not eliminate, risk of surgical morbidity from permanent bowel diversion. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies in rectal GIST patients requiring abdominoperineal resection following neoadjuvant imatinib. Methods: We developed a Markov model using a healthcare payers' perspective to estimate costs in 2017 Singapore dollars (SGD) and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for upfront abdominoperineal resection (UAPR) versus continued imatinib until progression (CIUP) following 1 year of neoadjuvant imatinib. Transition probabilities and utilities were obtained from published data, and costs were estimated using data from the National Cancer Centre Singapore. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to probe model uncertainty. Incremental costeffectiveness ratio below SGD 50,000 per QALY gained was considered cost-effective. Results: In the base case, UAPR dominates CIUP being both more effective (8.66 QALYS vs 5.43 QALYs) and less expensive (SGD 312,627 vs SGD 339,011). These estimates were most sensitive to 2 variables, utility of abdominoperineal resection and annual recurrence probability post-abdominoperineal resection. However, simultaneously varying the values of these variables to maximally favor CIUP did not render it the more cost effective strategy at willingness to pay (WTP) of SGD 50,000. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, UAPR had probability of being cost-effective compared with CIUP greater than 95%, reaching 100% at WTP SGD 10,000. Conclusion: UAPR is more effective and less costly than CIUP for patients with rectal GIST requiring abdominoperineal resection following neoadjuvant imatinib, and is the strategy of choice in this setting.
Background Stroke patients have increased risks of falls. We examined national registry data to evaluate the association between post-stroke functional level and the risk of low falls among post-stroke patients. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from national registries to examine the risk factors for post-stroke falls. Data for patients who suffered ischemic strokes and survived the index hospital admission was obtained from the Singapore National Stroke Registry and matched to the National Trauma Registry, from 2011 to 2015. The primary outcome measure was a low fall (fall height ≤0.5m). Competing risk analysis was performed to examine the association between functional level (by modified Rankin score [mRS] at discharge) and the risk of subsequent low falls. Results In all, 2,255 patients who suffered ischemic strokes had recorded mRS. The mean age was 66.6 years and 58.5% were men. By the end of 2015, 54 (2.39%) had a low fall while 93 (4.12%) died. After adjusting for potential confounders, mRS was associated with fall risk with an inverted U-shaped relationship. Compared to patients with a score of zero, the sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) increased to a maximum of 3.42 (95%CI:1.21-9.65, p=0.020) for patients with a score of 2. The SHR then declined to 2.45 (95%CI:0.85-7.12, p=0.098), 2.86 (95%CI:0.95-8.61, p=0.062) and 1.93 (95%CI:0.44-8.52, p=0.38) for patients with scores of 3, 4 and 5 respectively. Conclusions An inverted U-shaped relationship between functional status and fall risk was observed. This is consistent with the complex interplay between decreasing mobility (hence decreased opportunity to fall) and increasing susceptibility to falls. Fall prevention intervention could be targeted accordingly.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.