Quaternary climatic fluctuations have had profound effects on the phylogeographic structure of many species. Classically, species were thought to have become isolated in peninsular refugia, but there is limited evidence that large, non-polar species survived outside traditional refugial areas. We examined the phylogeographic structure of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), a species that shows high ecological adaptability in the western Palaearctic region. We compared mitochondrial DNA sequences (cytochrome b and control region) from 399 modern and 31 ancient individuals from across Europe. Our objective was to test whether red foxes colonised the British Isles from mainland Europe in the late Pleistocene, or whether there is evidence that they persisted in the region through the Last Glacial Maximum.We found red foxes to show a high degree of phylogeographic structuring across Europe and, consistent with palaeontological and ancient DNA evidence, confirmed via phylogenetic indicators that red foxes were persistent in areas outside peninsular refugia during the last ice age. Bayesian analyses and tests of neutrality indicated population expansion. We conclude that there is evidence that red foxes from the British Isles derived from central European populations that became isolated after the closure of the landbridge with Europe.

1. Distribution maps of cetaceans and seabirds at basin and monthly scales are needed for conservation and marine management. These are usually created from standardized and systematic aerial and vessel surveys, with recorded animal densities interpolated across study areas. However, distribution maps at basin and monthly scales have previously not been possible because individual surveys have restricted spatial and temporal coverage.2. This study develops an alternative approach consisting of: (a) collating diverse survey data to maximize spatial and temporal coverage, (b) using detection functions to estimate variation in the surface area covered (km 2 ) among these surveys, 254 | Journal of Applied Ecology WAGGITT eT Al. Synthesis and applications.This study provides the largest ever collation and standardization of diverse survey data for cetaceans and seabirds, and the most comprehensive distribution maps of these taxa in the North-East Atlantic. These distribution maps have numerous applications including the identification of important areas needing protection, and the quantification of overlap between vulnerable species and anthropogenic activities. This study demonstrates how the analysis of existing and diverse survey data can meet conservation and marine management needs.

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.

As with many other taxa, climate change is expected to result in geographic range shifts of cetacean species as they track changes in temperature to remain within their ecological niches. Such changes in geographic range could have implications for the conservation and management of cetaceans. Here, we propose a bioclimatic envelope modelling approach for providing quantitative predictions of how the ranges of cetacean species may respond to changing water temperatures. This combines predictions from habitat niche and 'thermal' niche models for an individual species to determine probable geographic range under specific climatic conditions. However, if this approach is to be used to inform conservation strategies, it is essential that the ability to predict responses to environmental change is validated beyond the period of data collection used to construct the models. Therefore, in addition to validation of modelled current range, we included a step to validate the models' ability to predict previous changes in range over time in response to climatic changes using independent data. We demonstrate this approach using common dolphin Delphinus delphis data from the Northeast Atlantic. The combined model was constructed with data collected between 1980 and 2007, and validated using independent distributional records collected between 1930 and 2006. The validated model was then applied to predict future range between 2010 and 2069, based on projected water temperatures. Thus, the modelling approach is shown to provide the type of information required to help ensure that conservation and management strategies remain effective in the face of a changing climate.

From May to September 2004 a survey of cetacean distribution and relative abundance was conducted on board a 'ship of opportunity' * a vessel used as a survey platform but not chartered for this purpose * off the west coast of Ireland. In total, 508 hours of survey effort were completed, with 304.2 hours in Beaufort sea-state 3 or less. Two hundred and thirty one sightings of eight species* common dolphin Delphinus delphis (L.), Atlantic white-sided dolphin Lagenorhynchus acutus (Gray), bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus (Montagu), harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena (L.), Risso's dolphin Grampus griseus (Cuvier), pilot whale Globicephala melas (Traill), minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata (Lacepede) and fin whale Balaenoptera physalus (L.) * were recorded, totalling 2,933 individuals. The greatest diversity and relative abundance were recorded on the Rockall Bank where Atlantic white-sided dolphin was the most abundant species. The common dolphin was the most abundant species recorded on the continental shelf to the southwest of Ireland, while the relative abundance of cetaceans off the north coast was very low. The data suggest that cetacean species composition and relative abundance can vary greatly between adjacent marine habitat types and over relatively small geographical distances.