Human perception is invariably accompanied by a graded feeling of confidence that guides metacognitive awareness and decision-making. It is often assumed that this arises solely from the feed-forward encoding of the strength or precision of sensory inputs. In contrast, interoceptive inference models suggest that confidence reflects a weighted integration of sensory precision and expectations about internal states, such as arousal. Here we test this hypothesis using a novel psychophysical paradigm, in which unseen disgust-cues induced unexpected, unconscious arousal just before participants discriminated motion signals of variable precision. Across measures of perceptual bias, uncertainty, and physiological arousal we found that arousing disgust cues modulated the encoding of sensory noise. Furthermore, the degree to which trial-by-trial pupil fluctuations encoded this nonlinear interaction correlated with trial level confidence. Our results suggest that unexpected arousal regulates perceptual precision, such that subjective confidence reflects the integration of both external sensory and internal, embodied states.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18103.001

The ability to introspectively evaluate our experiences to form accurate metacognitive beliefs, or insight, is an essential component of decision-making. Previous research suggests individuals vary substantially in their level of insight, and that this variation is related to brain volume and function, particularly in the anterior prefrontal cortex (aPFC). However, the neurobiological mechanisms underlying these effects are unclear, as qualitative, macroscopic measures such as brain volume can be related to a variety of microstructural features. Here we leverage a high-resolution (800 µm isotropic) multi-parameter mapping technique in 48 healthy individuals to delineate quantitative markers of in vivo histological features underlying metacognitive ability. Specifically, we examined how neuroimaging markers of local grey matter myelination and iron content relate to insight as measured by a signal-theoretic model of subjective confidence. Our results revealed a pattern of microstructural correlates of perceptual metacognition in the aPFC, precuneus, hippocampus, and visual cortices. In particular, we extend previous volumetric findings to show that right aPFC myeloarchitecture positively relates to metacognitive insight. In contrast, decreased myelination in the left hippocampus correlated with better metacognitive insight. These results highlight the ability of quantitative neuroimaging to reveal novel brain-behaviour correlates and may motivate future research on their environmental and developmental underpinnings.

Pattern separation and completion are fundamental hippocampal computations supporting memory encoding and retrieval. However, despite extensive exploration of these processes, it remains unclear whether and how top-down processes adaptively modulate the dynamics between these computations. Here we examine the role of expectation in shifting the hippocampus to perform pattern separation. In a behavioral task, 29 participants (7 males) learned a cue-object category contingency. Then, at encoding, one-third of the cues preceding the to-be-memorized objects, violated the studied rule. At test, participants performed a recognition task with old objects (targets) and a set of parametrically manipulated (very similar to dissimilar) foils for each object. Accuracy was found to be better for foils of high similarity to targets that were contextually unexpected at encoding compared with expected ones. Critically, there were no expectation-driven differences for targets and low similarity foils. To further explore these effects, we implemented a computational model of the hippocampus, performing the same task as the human participants. We used representational similarity analysis to examine how top-down expectation interacts with bottom-up perceptual input, in each layer. All subfields showed more dissimilar representations for unexpected items, with dentate gyrus (DG) and CA3 being more sensitive to expectation violation than CA1. Again, representational differences between expected and unexpected inputs were prominent for moderate to high levels of input similarity. This effect diminished when inputs from DG and CA3 into CA1 were lesioned. Overall, these novel findings strongly suggest that pattern separation in DG/CA3 underlies the effect that violation of expectation exerts on memory.

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