Human-induced eutrophication degrades freshwater systems worldwide by reducing water quality and altering ecosystem structure and function. We compared current total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) concentrations for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency nutrient ecoregions with estimated reference conditions. In all nutrient ecoregions, current median TN and TP values for rivers and lakes exceeded reference median values. In 12 of 14 ecoregions, over 90% of rivers currently exceed reference median values. We calculated potential annual value losses in recreational water usage, waterfront real estate, spending on recovery of threatened and endangered species, and drinking water. The combined costs were approximately $2.2 billion annually as a result of eutrophication in U.S. freshwaters. The greatest economic losses were attributed to lakefront property values ($0.3-2.8 billion per year, although this number was poorly constrained) and recreational use ($0.37-1.16 billion per year). Our evaluation likely underestimates economic losses incurred from freshwater eutrophication. We document potential costs to identify where restoring natural nutrient regimes can have the greatest economic benefits. Our research exposes gaps in current records (e.g., accounting for frequency of algal blooms and fish kills) and suggests further research is necessary to refine cost estimates.
We developed an extensive database of landscape metrics for ~2.65 million stream segments, and their associated catchments, within the conterminous United States (U.S.): The Stream‐Catchment (StreamCat) Dataset. These data are publically available (http://www2.epa.gov/national-aquatic-resource-surveys/streamcat) and greatly reduce the specialized geospatial expertise needed by researchers and managers to acquire landscape information for both catchments (i.e., the nearby landscape flowing directly into streams) and full upstream watersheds of specific stream reaches. When combined with an existing geospatial framework of the Nation's rivers and streams (National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2), the distribution of catchment and watershed characteristics can be visualized for the conterminous U.S. In this article, we document the development and main features of this dataset, including the suite of landscape features that were used to develop the data, scripts and algorithms used to accumulate and produce watershed summaries of landscape features, and the quality assurance procedures used to ensure data consistency. The StreamCat Dataset provides an important tool for stream researchers and managers to understand and characterize the Nation's rivers and streams.
Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in using RF to develop predictive models with large environmental data sets.
Watershed integrity is the capacity of a watershed to support and maintain the full range of ecological processes and functions essential to sustainability. Using information from EPA's StreamCat dataset, we calculated and mapped an Index of Watershed Integrity (IWI) for 2.6 million watersheds in the conterminous US with first-order approximations of relationships between stressors and six watershed functions: hydrologic regulation, regulation of water chemistry, sediment regulation, hydrologic connectivity, temperature regulation, and habitat provision. Results show high integrity in the western US, intermediate integrity in the southern and eastern US, and the lowest integrity in the temperate plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Correlation between the six functional components was high ( = 0.85-0.98). A related Index of Catchment Integrity (ICI) was developed using local drainages of individual stream segments (i.e., excluding upstream information). We evaluated the ability of the IWI and ICI to predict six continuous site-level indicators with regression analyses - three biological indicators and principal components derived from water quality, habitat, and combined water quality and habitat variables - using data from EPA's National Rivers and Streams Assessment. Relationships were highly significant, but the IWI only accounted for 1-12% of the variation in the four biological and habitat variables. The IWI accounted for over 25% of the variation in the water quality and combined principal components nationally, and 32-39% in the Northern and Southern Appalachians. We also used multinomial logistic regression to compare the IWI with the categorical forms of the three biological indicators. Results were consistent: we found positive associations but modest results. We compared how the IWI and ICI predicted the water quality PC relative to agricultural and urban land use. The IWI or ICI are the best predictors of the water quality PC for the CONUS and six of the nine ecoregions, but they only perform marginally better than agriculture in most instances. However, results suggest that agriculture would not be appropriate in all parts of the country, and the index is meant to be responsive to all stressors. The IWI in its present form (available through the StreamCat website; https://www.epa.gov/national-aquatic-resource-surveys/streamcat) could be useful for management efforts at multiple scales, especially when combined with information on site condition. The IWI could be improved by incorporating empirical or literature-derived relationships between functional components and stressors. However, limitations concerning the absence of data for certain stressors should be considered.
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