The work contains results of research on the possibility to improve the neural model of the Electric Power Exchange (polish: Towarowa Giełda Energii Elektrycznej – TGEE) in MATLAB and Simulink environment using evolutionary algorithm inspired by quantum computer science. The developed artificial neural network was trained using data for the Day Ahead Market, assuming the joint volume of supplied and sold electrical energy [MWh] as the input quantities in each hour of the 24-hour day, and average prices [PLN/MWh] as output quantities. The obtained model of the exchange system was improved using the evolutionary algorithm, and further improvement in the accuracy of the model by supplementing the evolutionary algorithm using quantum solutions, related to the initial population, crossover and mutation operators, selection, etc. were proposed.
The paper contains the results of research on the impact of the number of factors used to build the Day-Ahead Market model at Polish Power Exchange S.A. Five models with a different number of factors influencing the model were tested. To test the quality of models according to the adopted evaluation criteria, i.e., mean square error and the coefficient of determination for the weighted average prices sold in a given hour of the day, the influence of weather factors, socio-economic factors and energy demand were adopted. The results obtained from the analysis show a relatively high correctness of the simplest of the adopted models, which differs slightly from the best model.
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