Precipitation is the most relevant element in the hydrological cycle and vital for the biosphere. However, when extreme precipitation events occur, the consequences could be devastating for humans (droughts or floods). An accurate prediction of precipitation helps decision-makers to develop adequate mitigation plans. In this study, linear and nonlinear models with lagged predictors and the implementation of a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous variables (NARX) network were used to predict monthly rainfall in Labrado and Chirimachay meteorological stations. To define a suitable model, ridge regression, lasso, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and NARX network were used. Although the results were “unsatisfactory” with the linear models, the specific direct influences of variables such as Niño 1 + 2, Sahel rainfall, hurricane activity, North Pacific Oscillation, and the same delayed rainfall signal were identified. RF and SVM also demonstrated poor performance. However, RF had a better fit than linear models, and SVM has a better fit than RF models. Instead, the NARX model was trained using several architectures to identify an optimal one for the best prediction twelve months ahead. As an overall evaluation, the NARX model showed “good” results for Labrado and “satisfactory” results for Chirimachay. The predictions yielded by NARX models, for the first six months ahead, were entirely accurate. This study highlighted the strengths of NARX networks in the prediction of chaotic and nonlinear signals such as rainfall in regions that obey complex processes. The results would serve to make short-term plans and give support to decision-makers in the management of water resources.

Knowledge about precipitation generation remains limited in the tropical Andes due to the lack of water stable isotope (WSI) data. Therefore, we investigated the key factors controlling the isotopic composition of precipitation in the Páramo highlands of southern Ecuador using event-based (high frequency) WSI data collected between November 2017 and October 2018. Our results show that air masses reach the study site preferentially from the eastern flank of the Andes through the Amazon basin (73.2%), the Orinoco plains (11.2%), and the Mato Grosso Massif (2.7%), whereas only a small proportion stems from the Pacific Ocean (12.9%). A combination of local and regional factors influences the δ18O isotopic composition of precipitation. Regional atmospheric features (Atlantic moisture, evapotranspiration over the Amazon Forest, continental rain-out, and altitudinal lapse rates) are what largely control the meteoric δ18O composition. Local precipitation, temperature, and the fraction of precipitation corresponding to moderate to heavy rainfalls are also key features influencing isotopic ratios, highlighting the importance of localized convective precipitation at the study site. Contrary to δ18O, d-excess values showed little temporal variation and could not be statistically linked to regional or local hydrometeorological features. The latter reveals that large amounts of recycled moisture from the Amazon basin contributes to local precipitation regardless of season and predominant trajectories from the east. Our findings will help to improve the isotope-based climatic models and enhance paleoclimate reconstructions in the southern Ecuador highlands.

Climate change threatens the hydrological equilibrium with severe consequences for living beings. In that respect, considerable differences in drought features are expected, especially for mountain-Andean regions, which seem to be prone to climate change. Therefore, an urgent need for evaluation of such climate conditions arises; especially the effects at catchment scales, due to its implications over the hydrological services. However, to study future climate impacts at the catchment scale, the use of dynamically downscaled data in developing countries is a luxury due to the computational constraints. This study performed spatiotemporal future long-term projections of droughts in the upper part of the Paute River basin, located in the southern Andes of Ecuador. Using 10 km dynamically downscaled data from four global climate models, the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) index was used for drought characterization in the base period (1981–2005) and future period (2011–2070) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of CMIP5 project. Fitting a generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution, the change ratio of the magnitude, duration, and severity between the future and present was evaluated for return periods 10, 50, and 100 years. The results show that magnitude and duration dramatically decrease in the near future for the climate scenarios under analysis; these features presented a declining effect from the near to the far future. Additionally, the severity shows a general increment with respect to the base period, which is intensified with longer return periods; however, the severity shows a decrement for specific areas in the far future of RCP 4.5 and near future of RCP 8.5. This research adds knowledge to the evaluation of droughts in complex terrain in tropical regions, where the representation of convection is the main limitation of global climate models (GCMs). The results provide useful information for decision-makers supporting mitigating measures in future decades.

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