Background Since the end of 2020, there has been a great deal of international concern about the variants of SARS-COV-2 B.1.1.7, identified in the United Kingdom; B.1.351 discovered in South Africa and P.1, originating from the Brazilian state of Amazonas. The three variants were associated with an increase in transmissibility and worsening of the epidemiological situation in the places where they expanded. The lineage B.1.1.7 was associated with the increase in case fatality rate in the United Kingdom. There are still no studies on the case fatality rate of the other two variants. The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality profile before and after the emergence of the P.1 strain in the Amazonas state. Methods We analyzed data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, SIVEP-Gripe (Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe), comparing two distinct epidemiological periods: during the peak of the first wave, between April and May 2020, and in January 2021 (the second wave), the month in which the new variant came to predominate. We calculated mortality rates, overall case fatality rate and case fatality rate among hospitalized patients; all rates were calculated by age and gender and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were determined. Findings We observed that in the second wave there were a higher incidence and an increase in the proportion of cases of COVID-19 in the younger age groups. There was also an increase in the proportion of women among Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) cases from 40% (2,709) in the first wave to 47% (2,898) in the second wave and in the proportion of deaths due to COVID-19 between the two periods varying from 34% (1,051) to 47% (1,724), respectively. In addition, the proportion of deaths among people between 20 and 59 years old has increased in both sexes. The case fatality rate among those hospitalized in the population between 20 and 39 years old during the second wave was 2.7 times the rate observed in the first wave (female rate ratio = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.9-3.9], p <0.0001; male rate ratio = 2.70, 95%CI:2.0-3.7), and in the general population the rate ratios were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.1-1.2) in females and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.7-0.8) in males]. Interpretation Based on this prompt analysis of the epidemiological scenario in the Amazonas state, the observed changes in the pattern of mortality due to COVID-19 between age groups and gender simultaneously with the emergence of the P.1 strain suggest changes in the pathogenicity and virulence profile of this new variant. Further studies are needed to better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 variants profile and their impact for the health population. Funding There was no funding for this study.
Background Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in the Americas in 2013 and has caused ~2.1 million cases and over 600 deaths. A retrospective investigation was undertaken to describe clinical, epidemiological and virus genomic features associated with deaths caused by CHIKV in Ceará state, northeast Brazil. Methods Sera, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and tissue samples from 100 fatal cases with suspected arbovirus infection were tested for CHIKV, dengue (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV). Clinical, epidemiological and death reports were obtained for patients with confirmed CHIKV infection. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify independent factors associated with risk of death during CHIKV infection. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted using whole genomes from a subset of cases. Results 68 fatal cases had CHIKV infection confirmed by RT-qPCR (52.9%), viral antigen (41.1%), and/or specific-IgM (63.2%). Co-detection of CHIKV with DENV were found in 22% of fatal cases, ZIKV in 2.9%, and DENV and ZIKV in 1.5%. A total of 39 CHIKV-deaths presented with neurological signs and symptoms, and CHIKV-RNA was found in the CSF of 92.3% of these patients. Fatal outcomes were associated with irreversible multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Patients with diabetes appear to die at a higher frequency during the sub-acute phase. Genetic analysis showed circulation of two CHIKV-East Central South African (ECSA) lineages in Ceará and revealed no unique virus genomic mutation associated with fatal outcome. Conclusion The investigation of the largest cross-sectional cohort of CHIKV-deaths to date reveals that CHIKV-ECSA strains can cause death in individuals from both risk and non-risk groups, including young adults.
Introduction: Chikungunya causes fever and severe and persistent joint pain. Methods: We reported a chikungunya outbreak that occurred in Ceará State, Brazil between 2016 and 2017 with emphasis on epidemiological characterization of cases, high number of deaths, mortality-associated factors, and spatial and temporal spread of the epidemic among municipalities. Results: In November 2015, the first autochthonous cases of chikungunya were confirmed in Ceará, Brazil. In 2016-2017, 195,993 cases were reported, with an incidence of 2,186.5/100,000 inhabitants and 244 confirmed deaths. Conclusions: Rapid transmission and high mortality rate are serious problems, especially in regions with co-circulating arboviruses.
Introdução Desde o final de 2020 tem havido grande preocupação internacional com as variantes do SARS-COV-2: B.1.1.7, identificada no Reino Unido; B.1.351, descoberta na África do Sul e P.1, que emergiu inicialmente estado brasileiro do Amazonas. As três variantes foram associadas a aumento na transmissibilidade e piora da situação epidemiológica nos locais onde se expandiram. A linhagem B.1.1.7 foi associada ao aumento da taxa de letalidade no Reino Unido. Ainda não existem estudos conclusivos sobre letalidade das outras duas variantes. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o perfil de mortalidade antes e depois da emergência da linhagem P.1 no Amazonas. Métodos Analisamos os dados do sistema nacional de vigilância epidemiológica, comparando dois momentos epidemiológicos distintos: durante o pico da primeira onda, entre abril e maio de 2020, e em janeiro de 2021, mês em que a nova variante passou a predominar. Calculamos as taxas de mortalidade, letalidade e letalidade entre pacientes internados, todas as taxas foram calculadas por idade e por sexo e determinados os intervalos de confiança de 95%. Achados Observamos que na segunda onda houve maior incidência e aumento na proporção de casos de COVID-19 nas faixas etárias mais jovens. Observou-se, também, um aumento na proporção de mulheres entre os casos de SARI de 40% (2.709) na primeira onda para 47% (2.898) na segunda onda e entre mortes por COVID-19 de 34% (1,051) para 47% (1.724), respectivamente. Além disso, a proporção de mortes entre 20 e 59 anos aumentou em ambos os sexos. A letalidade entre os hospitalizados na população entre 20 e 39 anos durante a segunda onda foi 2.7 vezes a primeira onda [razão de taxas sexo feminino=2,71; CI(95%)=1,9-3,9], p<0.0001; razão de taxas sexo masculino=2.70(2.0-3.7)), na população geral as razões de taxa foram 1,15(1,1-1,2) no sexo feminino e 0,78(0,7-0,8) no sexo masculino. Interpretação Observamos mudanças no padrão de mortalidade por COVID-19 entre as faixas etárias e sexo simultaneamente à emergência da linhagem P.1, sugerindo mudanças nos perfis de patogenicidade e virulência, novos estudos são necessários para melhor compreensão das variantes do SARS-CoV-2 e suas consequências na saúde da população.
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