Long-term transition pathways to a low-carbon energy system are analysed by applying the energy system model REMod. All in all, the paper contributes to the current research through an innovative scenario approach, using assumptions for societal trends and quantitative results for scenarios, analysing the paths towards climate neutrality and defossilization in 2050. In the case study of Germany, these trends and drivers influence the results and the technology composition in each consumption sector (buildings, transport, and industry). Across all scenarios, it can be observed that the electrification of all sectors is important for the defossilization of the energy system, as the direct use of electricity from renewable energy is more efficient than the consumption of carbon-neutral synthetic energy carriers. However, different consumer behavior (e.g., non-acceptance or resistance against specific technologies) influences not only the efficient use of (green) electricity, it also changes the optimal pathways of the transition to paths with greater efforts. One potential societal trend—sufficiency—could be an important cornerstone for reaching the targets, as the required expansion and exchange of technologies are lower and thus facilitate the transition.
With the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the international community has reaffirmed its commitment to tackle anthropogenic climate change with the goal of limiting the global average temperature increase below 1.5 °C, but to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Against this background, we examine scenarios for a complete decarbonisation of the European energy supply. Since such scenarios are based on a high expansion of weather-dependent renewable energy sources, the question arises, which flexible technologies are necessary to balance supply and demand in such energy systems. In this paper, a scenario analysis shows which capacity or volume of energy storage, power interconnectors and synthetic fuels are needed in decarbonization scenarios. To address this research question three different energy system models are applied. These models cover Europe and Germany, respectively, and are able to explain different results of the single models based of the corresponding model characteristics. The paper concludes that the power sector is able to cover a considerable share of the energy demand in the heat and transport sector with the help of flexible sector coupling technologies such as heat pumps and electric mobility. All considered models manage to find solutions for a deep decarbonization if flexibility and storage option are available.
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