A longitudinal investigation into the relative age effect in an English professional football club: Exploring the 'underdog hypothesis'The relative age effect (RAE) refers to the bias influence of birthdate distribution, with athletes born later in the selection year being under-represented in talent development systems. However, the 'underdog hypothesis' suggests that younger birth quarter (BQ) athletes are over-represented among those who successfully transition from youth systems to senior professional status. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was twofold;(1) to provide further test of the RAE over twelve seasons (n=556), and (2) to examine the BQ of professional contracts awarded to academy graduates at an English professional football club over eleven seasons (n=364). Significantly skewed (P<0.001) birthdate distributions were found for academy players (BQ1 n=224: BQ2 n=168; BQ3 n=88; BQ4 n=76). The distribution from academy graduates was also significantly skewed for professional contracts awarded (P=0.03), with greater BQ4 representation (n=8) compared to other BQs (BQ1 n=5; BQ2 n=8; BQ3 n=6). These findings are indicative that the RAE continues to manifest within an academy setting. Interestingly however, the underdog hypothesis shows BQ4s were approximately four times more likely to achieve senior professional status compared to BQ1s. Implications for talent identification and development in football are discussed.

A common practice in youth rugby union is to group players based on (bi)annual age with fixed cut-off dates. The overrepresentation of players born at the start of the cut-off date and the underrepresentation of players born toward the end of the cut-off date are termed relative age effects (RAEs). The aim of this study was to examine RAEs during entry into professional and international rugby union pathways in England, as well as comparing them to their respective senior cohort: U15 Regional Academy Player (n = 1,114) vs. Senior Professional Player (n = 281) and U16–23 England Academy Player (n = 849) vs. Senior International Player (n = 48). Chi-square (χ2) analysis compared birth quarter (BQ) distributions against expected distributions. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals compared the likelihood of a BQ being selected. Findings revealed a significant overrepresentation of relatively older players compared with their relatively younger peers within both youth cohorts (P &lt; 0.001; BQ1 = 42.5% vs. BQ4 = 9.6%; BQ1 = 36.5% vs. BQ4 = 15.2%). In comparison, there was no significant difference in the BQ distributions within both senior cohorts. Further, BQ4s were 3.86 and 3.9 times more likely to achieve senior professional and international levels than BQ1s and BQ2s, respectively. It is suggested that relatively younger players may have a greater likelihood of achieving expertise following entry into a rugby union talent pathway due to benefitting from more competitive play against relatively older counterparts during their development (e.g., reversal effects; the underdog hypothesis). Moreover, possible solutions (e.g., age and anthropometric banding; playing-up and playing-down) are discussed to encourage practitioners and policy makers to create the most appropriate learning environment for every player.

The relative age effect (RAE) is almost pervasive throughout youth sports, whereby relatively older athletes are consistently overrepresented compared to their relatively younger peers. Although researchers regularly cite the need for sports programs to incorporate strategies to moderate the RAE, organizational structures often continue to adopt a one-dimensional (bi)annual-age group approach. In an effort to combat this issue, England Squash implemented a “birthday-banding” strategy in its talent pathway, whereby young athletes move up to their next age group on their birthday, with the aim to remove particular selection time points and fixed chronological bandings. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the potential effects of the birthday-banding strategy on birth quarter (BQ) distributions throughout the England Squash talent pathway. Three mixed-gender groups were populated and analyzed: (a) ASPIRE athletes ( n = 250), (b) Development and Potential athletes ( n = 52), and (c) Senior team and Academy athletes ( n = 26). Chi-square analysis and odds ratios were used to test BQ distributions against national norms and between quartiles, respectively. Results reveal no significant difference between BQ distributions within all three groups ( P > 0.05). In contrast to most studies examining the RAE within athlete development settings, there appears to be no RAE throughout the England Squash talent pathway. These findings suggest that the birthday-banding strategy may be a useful tool to moderate RAE in youth sports.

Technical testing and match analysis statistics as part of the talent13 development process in an English football academy 14 Technical ability is recognised as a fundamental prerequisite to achieve senior 15 professional status in football. However, research is yet to investigate what technical 16 attributes contribute to greater coach perceived potential within an academy 17 environment. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine technical ability and skill 18 behaviour as contributing factors to coach potential ratings in an English football 19 academy. Ninety-eight outfield academy players (Foundation Development Phase 20 [FDP] under-9 to under-11 n=40; Youth Development Phase [YDP] under-12 to under-21 16 n=58) participated in the study. Four football-specific technical tests were used to 22 measure technical ability, whilst eight match analysis statistics from competitive 23 match-play across an entire season were observed to measure skill behaviour. A 24 classification of 'higher-potentials' (top third) and 'lower-potentials' (bottom third) 25 were applied through coach rankings. Within the FDP, higher-potentials performed 26 significantly better (P<0.05) on the lob pass test, alongside greater reliability in 27 possession, pass completion, and total touches for match analysis statistics. Within the 28 YDP, higher-potentials performed significantly better (P<0.05) on all four technical 29 tests, alongside greater reliability in possession, dribble completion, and total touches 30 for match analysis statistics. Results suggest football-specific technical tests and 'in 31 possession' skill behaviours may provide discriminative tools that align with perceived 32 potential.

In an attempt to facilitate more appropriate levels of challenge, a common practice in academy football is to play-up talented youth players with chronologically older peers.However, the context of playing-up in academy football is yet to be empirically explored. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the multidimensional factors that differentiated players who play-up from those who do not. Ninety-eight participants from a single football academy were examined within their age phase: Foundation Development Phase (FDP; under-9 to under-11; n=40) and Youth Development Phase (YDP; under-12 to under-16; n=58). Drawing upon the FA Four Corner Model, 27 factors relating to Technical/Tactical, Physical, Psychological, and Social development were assessed. Following MANOVA analysis within both the FDP and YDP, significant differences were observed for Technical/Tactical and Social subcomponents (P<0.05). Further differences were observed for Physical and Psychological sub-components (P<0.05) within the YDP. In sum, Technical/Tactical and Social characteristics appeared to differentiate those who play-up compared to those who do not within the FDP. In the YDP however, there were measures representing all sub-components from the FA Four Corner Model. Subsequently, it is suggested coaches and practitioners consider these holistic factors when playing-up youth football players within relevant age-phases.