The effect of age is greatest in the elderly for knee and hip OA, but around the menopause for hand OA. OA clusters within individuals, with higher risk of incident knee and hip disease from prevalent lower limb and hand OA.

SummaryBackgroundTotal joint replacements for end-stage osteoarthritis of the hip and knee are cost-effective and demonstrate significant clinical improvement. However, robust population based lifetime-risk data for implant revision are not available to aid patient decision making, which is a particular problem in young patient groups deciding on best-timing for surgery.MethodsWe did implant survival analysis on all patients within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink who had undergone total hip replacement or total knee replacement. These data were adjusted for all-cause mortality with data from the Office for National Statistics and used to generate lifetime risks of revision surgery based on increasing age at the time of primary surgery.FindingsWe identified 63 158 patients who had undergone total hip replacement and 54 276 who had total knee replacement between Jan 1, 1991, and Aug 10, 2011, and followed up these patients to a maximum of 20 years. For total hip replacement, 10-year implant survival rate was 95·6% (95% CI 95·3–95·9) and 20-year rate was 85·0% (83·2–86·6). For total knee replacement, 10-year implant survival rate was 96·1% (95·8–96·4), and 20-year implant survival rate was 89·7% (87·5–91·5). The lifetime risk of requiring revision surgery in patients who had total hip replacement or total knee replacement over the age of 70 years was about 5% with no difference between sexes. For those who had surgery younger than 70 years, however, the lifetime risk of revision increased for younger patients, up to 35% (95% CI 30·9–39·1) for men in their early 50s, with large differences seen between male and female patients (15% lower for women in same age group). The median time to revision for patients who had surgery younger than age 60 was 4·4 years.InterpretationOur study used novel methodology to investigate and offer new insight into the importance of young age and risk of revision after total hip or knee replacement. Our evidence challenges the increasing trend for more total hip replacements and total knee replacements to be done in the younger patient group, and these data should be offered to patients as part of the shared decision making process.FundingOxford Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, National Institute for Health Research.

Using historical rates and population forecasts we have projected the number of THR/TKR operations in the UK up to 2035. This study will inform policymakers requiring estimates of future demand for surgery. Incorporating future forecasts for BMI into projections of joint replacement may be more relevant for TKR rather than THR.

The association between obesity and fracture is controversial. We investigated the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and fracture at different skeletal sites in women aged !50 years using data from the Sistema d' Informació per al Desenvolupament de la Investigació en Atenció Primària (SIDIAP) database. SIDIAP contains the computerized medical records of >3400 general practitioners in Catalonia (northeastern Spain), with information on a representative 80% of the population (>5 million people). In 2009, 1,039,878 women aged !50 years were eligible, of whom 832,775 (80.1%) had a BMI measurement. These were categorized into underweight/ normal (302,414 women), overweight (266,798), and obese (263,563). Fractures were ascertained using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Multivariate Poisson regression models were fitted to adjust for age, smoking, high alcohol intake, type 2 diabetes, and oral corticosteroid use. Hip fractures were significantly less common in overweight and obese women than in normal/underweight women (rate ratio Conversely, obese women were at significantly higher risk of proximal humerus fracture than the normal/ underweight group (RR 1.28 [95% CI 1.04 to 1.58], p ¼ 0.018). Clinical spine, wrist, tibial, and multiple rib fracture rates were not significantly different between groups. An age-related increase in incidence was seen for all BMI groups at all fracture sites; obese women with hip, clinical spine, and pelvis fracture were significantly younger at the time of fracture than normal/underweight women, whereas those with wrist fracture were significantly older. The association between obesity and fracture in postmenopausal women is sitedependent, obesity being protective against hip and pelvis fractures but associated with an almost 30% increase in risk for proximal humerus fractures when compared with normal/underweight women. The reasons for these site-specific variations are unknown but may be related to different patterns of falls and attenuation of their impact by adipose tissue. ß[

SummaryUsing a large cohort of hip fracture patients, we estimated hospital costs to be £14,163 and £2139 in the first and second year following fracture, respectively. Second hip and non-hip fractures were major cost drivers. There is a strong economic incentive to identify cost-effective approaches for hip fracture prevention.IntroductionThe purpose of this study was to estimate hospital costs of hip fracture up to 2 years post-fracture and compare costs before and after the index fracture.MethodsA cohort of patients aged over 60 years admitted with a hip fracture in a UK region between 2003 and 2013 were identified from hospital records and followed until death or administrative censoring. All hospital records were valued using 2012/2013 unit costs, and non-parametric censoring methods were used to adjust for censoring when estimating average annual costs. A generalised linear model examined the main predictors of hospital costs.ResultsA cohort of 33,152 patients with a hip fracture was identified (mean age 83 years (SD 8.2). The mean censor-adjusted 1- and 2-year hospital costs after index hip fracture were £14,163 (95 % confidence interval (CI) £14,008 to £14,317) and £16,302 (95 % CI £16,097 to £16,515), respectively. Index admission accounted for 61 % (£8613; 95 % CI £8565 to £8661) of total 1-year hospital costs which were £10,964 higher compared to the year pre-event (p < 0.001). The main predictors of 1-year hospital costs were second hip fracture, other non-hip fragility fractures requiring hospitalisation and hip fracture-related complications. Total UK annual hospital costs associated with incident hip fractures were estimated at £1.1 billion.ConclusionsHospital costs following hip fracture are high and mostly occur in the first year after the index hip fracture. Experiencing a second hip fracture after the index fracture accounted for much of the increase in costs. There is a strong economic incentive to prioritise research funds towards identifying the best approaches to prevent both index and subsequent hip fractures.

IMPORTANCE The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented needs for invasive ventilation, with 10% to 15% of intubated patients subsequently requiring tracheotomy. OBJECTIVE To assess the complications, safety, and timing of tracheotomy performed for critically ill patients with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prospective cohort study assessed consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) who had COVID-19 that required tracheotomy. Patients were recruited from March 16 to April 10, 2020, at a tertiary referral center. EXPOSURES A surgical tracheotomy was performed for all patients following recommended criteria for use of personal protective equipment (PPE). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The number of subthyroid operations, the tracheal entrance protocol, and use of PPE. Infections among the surgeons were monitored weekly by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction of nasopharyngeal swab samples. Short-term complications, weaning, and the association of timing of tracheotomy (early [Յ10 days] vs late [>10 days]) with total required days of invasive ventilation were assessed. RESULTS A total of 50 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.8 [9.2] years; 33 [66%] male) participated in the study. All tracheotomies were performed at the bedside. The median time from intubation to tracheotomy was 9 days (interquartile range, 2-24 days). A subthyroid approach was completed for 46 patients (92%), and the tracheal protocol was adequately achieved for 40 patients (80%). Adequate PPE was used, with no infection among surgeons identified 4 weeks after the last tracheotomy. Postoperative complications were rare, with minor bleeding (in 6 patients [12%]) being the most common complication. The successful weaning rate was higher in the early tracheotomy group than in the late tracheotomy group (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.55; 95% CI, 0.96-6.75), but the difference was not statistically significant. There was less time of invasive mechanical ventilatory support with early tracheotomy compared with late tracheotomy (mean [SD], 18 [5.4] vs 22.3 [5.7] days). The reduction of invasive ventilatory support was achieved at the expense of the pretracheotomy period. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cohort study, with the use of a standardized protocol aimed at minimizing COVID-19 risks, bedside open tracheotomy was a safe procedure for patients and surgeons, with minimal complications. Timing of tracheotomy may be important in reducing time of invasive mechanical ventilation, with potential implications to intensive care unit availability during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Summary Background Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Methods In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I 2 value was less than 0·4. Findings The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Self-controlled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12–2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22–3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05–1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02–1·45]). Interpretation Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit–risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment. Funding National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Senior Research Fellowship programme, US National Institutes of Health, US Depar...

Objectives: to evaluate orthogeriatric and nurse-led fracture liaison service (FLS) models of post-hip fracture care in terms of impact on mortality (30 days and 1 year) and second hip fracture (2 years).Setting: Hospital Episode Statistics database linked to Office for National Statistics mortality records for 11 acute hospitals in a region of England.Population: patients aged over 60 years admitted for a primary hip fracture from 2003 to 2013.Methods: each hospital was analysed separately and acted as its own control in a before–after time-series design in which the appointment of an orthogeriatrician or set-up/expansion of an FLS was evaluated. Multivariable Cox regression (mortality) and competing risk survival models (second hip fracture) were used. Fixed effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimates of impact for interventions of the same type.Results: of 33,152 primary hip fracture patients, 1,288 sustained a second hip fracture within 2 years (age and sex standardised proportion of 4.2%). 3,033 primary hip fracture patients died within 30 days and 9,662 died within 1 year (age and sex standardised proportion of 9.5% and 29.8%, respectively). The estimated impact of introducing an orthogeriatrician on 30-day and 1-year mortality was hazard ratio (HR) = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.65–0.82) and HR = 0.81 (CI: 0.75–0.87), respectively. Following an FLS, these associations were as follows: HR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.71–0.91) and HR = 0.84 (0.77–0.93). There was no significant impact on time to second hip fracture.Conclusions: the introduction and/or expansion of orthogeriatric and FLS models of post-hip fracture care has a beneficial effect on subsequent mortality. No evidence for a reduction in second hip fracture rate was found.