Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an endemic disease in Argentina, one of the most affected countries in the Americas. Andes virus (ANDV) is the main Orthohantavirus species causing HPS in Argentina. In this study, the geographical distribution, clinical presentation, and epidemiological features of HPS from all endemic regions of Argentina were analyzed. We focused on the clinical and epidemiological data from 533 HPS cases confirmed during the period 2009 to 2017 by the National Reference Laboratory for Hantavirus. A case-fatality rate of 21.4%was registered, and most of the cases presented a severe clinical picture requiring intensive care treatment (84%). Since HPS first detection in 1995 the case-fatality rate showed a general trend towards a decrease. After more than 22 years of experience in HPS diagnosis and surveillance, we discuss some possible factors implicated in this tendency. This clinical and epidemiological analysis gives a global perspective, being useful to detect trends and patterns, to update preventive actions at a national level, and evaluate their impact on public health.
K E Y W O R D SAndes virus, epidemiology, hantavirus, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, virology, zoonotic
Background
Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is caused by Andes virus (ANDV) and related hantaviruses in the Americas. Despite a fatality rate of 40%, the pathogenesis of HPS is poorly understood and factors associated with severity, fatality, and survival remain elusive.
Methods
Ninety-three ANDV-infected HPS patients, of whom 34 had a fatal outcome, were retrospectively studied. Serum levels of cytokines and other inflammation-associated markers were analyzed using multiplex immunoassay and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Associations with disease severity, fatal outcome, and survival were identified using logistic regression.
Results
HPS patients exhibited increased serum levels of markers associated with inflammation, intestinal damage, and microbial translocation compared to controls. Patients with fatal outcome displayed higher levels of interleukin (IL) 6, IL-10, interferon-γ, soluble tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, and intestinal fatty acid–binding protein (I-FABP) than survivors. Levels of complement factor 5/5a were higher in survivors compared with fatal cases. IL-6 and I-FABP, the latter a marker for intestinal damage, were by multivariate analyses identified as independent markers associated with disease severity (odds ratio [OR], 2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–5.01) and fatal outcome (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.01–2.64), respectively.
Conclusions
HPS patients displayed a multifaceted, systemic inflammatory response, with IL-6 and I-FABP as independent markers of disease severity and fatality, respectively.
Background
Rodent-borne hantaviruses (genus Orthohantavirus) are the etiologic agents causing two human diseases: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Euroasia; and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in North and South America. In South America fatality rates of HPS can reach up to 35%–50%. The transmission of pathogenic hantaviruses to humans occurs mainly via inhalation of aerosolized excreta from infected rodents. Thus, the epidemiology of HPS is necessarily linked to the ecology of their rodent hosts and the contact with a human, which in turn may be influenced by climatic variability. Here we examined the relationship between climatic variables and hantavirus transmission aim to develop an early warning system of potential hantavirus outbreaks based on ecologically relevant climatic factors.
Methodology and main findings
We compiled reported HPS cases in northwestern Argentina during the 1997–2017 period and divided our data into biannual, quarterly, and bimestrial time periods to allow annual and shorter time delays to be observed. To evaluate the relationship of hantavirus transmission with mean temperature and precipitation we used dynamic regression analysis. We found a significant association between HPS incidence and lagged rainfall and temperature with a delay of 2 to 6 months. For the biannual and quarterly models, hantavirus transmission was positively associated with lagged rainfall and temperature; whereas the bimestrial models indicate a direct relationship with the rainfall but inverse for temperature in the second lagged period.
Conclusions/Significance
This work demonstrates that climate variability plays a significant role in the transmission of hantavirus in northwestern Argentina. The model developed in this study provides a basis for the forecast of potential HPS outbreaks based on climatic parameters. Our findings are valuable for the development of public health policies and prevention strategies to mitigate possible outbreaks. Nonetheless, a surveillance program on rodent population dynamics would lead to a more accurate forecast of HPS outbreaks.
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