Due to the high complexity of biological data it is difficult to disentangle cellular processes relying only on intuitive interpretation of measurements. A Systems Biology approach that combines quantitative experimental data with dynamic mathematical modeling promises to yield deeper insights into these processes. Nevertheless, with growing complexity and increasing amount of quantitative experimental data, building realistic and reliable mathematical models can become a challenging task: the quality of experimental data has to be assessed objectively, unknown model parameters need to be estimated from the experimental data, and numerical calculations need to be precise and efficient.Here, we discuss, compare and characterize the performance of computational methods throughout the process of quantitative dynamic modeling using two previously established examples, for which quantitative, dose- and time-resolved experimental data are available. In particular, we present an approach that allows to determine the quality of experimental data in an efficient, objective and automated manner. Using this approach data generated by different measurement techniques and even in single replicates can be reliably used for mathematical modeling. For the estimation of unknown model parameters, the performance of different optimization algorithms was compared systematically. Our results show that deterministic derivative-based optimization employing the sensitivity equations in combination with a multi-start strategy based on latin hypercube sampling outperforms the other methods by orders of magnitude in accuracy and speed. Finally, we investigated transformations that yield a more efficient parameterization of the model and therefore lead to a further enhancement in optimization performance. We provide a freely available open source software package that implements the algorithms and examples compared here.

Quantitative analysis of time-resolved data in primary erythroid progenitor cells reveals that a dual negative transcriptional feedback mechanism underlies the ability of STAT5 to respond to the broad spectrum of physiologically relevant Epo concentrations.

Inferring knowledge about biological processes by a mathematical description is a major characteristic of Systems Biology. To understand and predict system's behavior the available experimental information is translated into a mathematical model. Since the availability of experimental data is often limited and measurements contain noise, it is essential to appropriately translate experimental uncertainty to model parameters as well as to model predictions. This is especially important in Systems Biology because typically large and complex models are applied and therefore the limited experimental knowledge might yield weakly specified model components. Likelihood profiles have been recently suggested and applied in the Systems Biology for assessing parameter and prediction uncertainty. In this article, the profile likelihood concept is reviewed and the potential of the approach is demonstrated for a model of the erythropoietin (EPO) receptor.

In systems biology, one of the major tasks is to tailor model complexity to information content of the data. A useful model should describe the data and produce well-determined parameter estimates and predictions. Too small of a model will not be able to describe the data whereas a model which is too large tends to overfit measurement errors and does not provide precise predictions. Typically, the model is modified and tuned to fit the data, which often results in an oversized model. To restore the balance between model complexity and available measurements, either new data has to be gathered or the model has to be reduced. In this manuscript, we present a data-based method for reducing non-linear models. The profile likelihood is utilised to assess parameter identifiability and designate likely candidates for reduction. Parameter dependencies are analysed along profiles, providing context-dependent suggestions for the type of reduction. We discriminate four distinct scenarios, each associated with a specific model reduction strategy. Iterating the presented procedure eventually results in an identifiable model, which is capable of generating precise and testable predictions. Source code for all toy examples is provided within the freely available, open-source modelling environment Data2Dynamics based on MATLAB available at http://www.data2dynamics.org/, as well as the R packages dMod/cOde available at https://github.com/dkaschek/. Moreover, the concept is generally applicable and can readily be used with any software capable of calculating the profile likelihood.

Parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has manifold applications not only in physics but also in the life sciences. When estimating the ODE parameters from experimentally observed data, the modeler is frequently concerned with the question of parameter identifiability. The source of parameter nonidentifiability is tightly related to Lie group symmetries. In the present work, we establish a direct search algorithm for the determination of admitted Lie group symmetries. We clarify the relationship between admitted symmetries and parameter nonidentifiability. The proposed algorithm is applied to illustrative toy models as well as a data-based ODE model of the NFκB signaling pathway. We find that besides translations and scaling transformations also higher-order transformations play a role. Enabled by the knowledge about the explicit underlying symmetry transformations, we show how models with nonidentifiable parameters can still be employed to make reliable predictions.

In most solid cancers, cells harboring oncogenic mutations represent only a sub-fraction of the entire population. Within this sub-fraction the expression level of mutated proteins can vary significantly due to cellular variability limiting the efficiency of targeted therapy. To address the causes of the heterogeneity, we performed a systematic analysis of one of the most frequently mutated pathways in cancer cells, the phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase (PI3K) signaling pathway. Among others PI3K signaling is activated by the hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) that regulates proliferation of hepatocytes during liver regeneration but also fosters tumor cell proliferation. HGF-mediated responses of PI3K signaling were monitored both at the single cell and cell population level in primary mouse hepatocytes and in the hepatoma cell line Hepa1_6. Interestingly, we observed that the HGF-mediated AKT responses at the level of individual cells is rather heterogeneous. However, the overall average behavior of the single cells strongly resembled the dynamics of AKT activation determined at the cell population level. To gain insights into the molecular cause for the observed heterogeneous behavior of individual cells, we employed dynamic mathematical modeling in a stochastic framework. Our analysis demonstrated that intrinsic noise was not sufficient to explain the observed kinetic behavior, but rather the importance of extrinsic noise has to be considered. Thus, distinct from gene expression in the examined signaling pathway fluctuations of the reaction rates has only a minor impact whereas variability in the concentration of the various signaling components even in a clonal cell population is a key determinant for the kinetic behavior.

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP), a mechanistically oriented form of drug and disease modeling, seeks to address a diverse set of problems in the discovery and development of therapies. These problems bring a considerable amount of variability and uncertainty inherent in the nonclinical and clinical data. Likewise, the available modeling techniques and related software tools are manifold. Appropriately, the development, qualification, application, and impact of QSP models have been similarly varied. In this review, we describe the progressive maturation of a QSP modeling workflow: a necessary step for the efficient, reproducible development and qualification of QSP models, which themselves are highly iterative and evolutive. Furthermore, we describe three applications of QSP to impact drug development; one supporting new indications for an approved antidiabetic clinical asset through mechanistic hypothesis generation, one highlighting efficacy and safety differentiation within the sodium‐glucose cotransporter‐2 inhibitor drug class, and one enabling rational selection of immuno‐oncology drug combinations.

In a wide variety of research fields, dynamic modeling is employed as an instrument to learn and understand complex systems. The differential equations involved in this process are usually non-linear and depend on many parameters whose values determine the characteristics of the emergent system. The inverse problem, i.e., the inference or estimation of parameter values from observed data, is of interest from two points of view. First, the existence point of view, dealing with the question whether the system is able to reproduce the observed dynamics for any parameter values. Second, the identifiability point of view, investigating invariance of the prediction under change of parameter values, as well as the quantification of parameter uncertainty.In this paper, we present the R package dMod providing a framework for dealing with the inverse problem in dynamic systems modeled by ordinary differential equations. The uniqueness of the approach taken by dMod is to provide and propagate accurate derivatives computed from symbolic expressions wherever possible. This derivative information highly supports the convergence of optimization routines and enhances their numerical stability, a requirement for the applicability of sophisticated uncertainty analysis methods. Computational efficiency is achieved by automatic generation and execution of C code. The framework is object-oriented (S3) and provides a variety of functions to set up ordinary differential equation models, observation functions and parameter transformations for multi-conditional parameter estimation.The key elements of the framework and the methodology implemented in dMod are highlighted by an application on a three-compartment transporter model.