Motivation Individualized drug response prediction is a fundamental part of personalized medicine for cancer. Great effort has been made to discover biomarkers or to develop machine learning methods for accurate drug response prediction in cancers. Incorporating prior knowledge of biological systems into these methods is a promising avenue to improve prediction performance. High-throughput cell line assays of drug-induced transcriptomic perturbation effects are a prior knowledge that has not been fully incorporated into a drug response prediction model yet. Results We introduce a unified probabilistic approach, Drug Response Variational Autoencoder (Dr.VAE), that simultaneously models both drug response in terms of viability and transcriptomic perturbations. Dr.VAE is a deep generative model based on variational autoencoders. Our experimental results showed Dr.VAE to do as well or outperform standard classification methods for 23 out of 26 tested Food and Drug Administration-approved drugs. In a series of ablation experiments we showed that the observed improvement of Dr.VAE can be credited to the incorporation of drug-induced perturbation effects with joint modeling of treatment sensitivity. Availability and implementation Processed data and software implementation using PyTorch (Paszke et al., 2017) are available at: https://github.com/rampasek/DrVAE. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects millions world-wide. While anti-TNF treatment is widely used to reduce disease progression, treatment fails in ∼one-third of patients. No biomarker currently exists that identifies non-responders before treatment. A rigorous community-based assessment of the utility of SNP data for predicting anti-TNF treatment efficacy in RA patients was performed in the context of a DREAM Challenge (http://www.synapse.org/RA_Challenge). An open challenge framework enabled the comparative evaluation of predictions developed by 73 research groups using the most comprehensive available data and covering a wide range of state-of-the-art modelling methodologies. Despite a significant genetic heritability estimate of treatment non-response trait (h2=0.18, P value=0.02), no significant genetic contribution to prediction accuracy is observed. Results formally confirm the expectations of the rheumatology community that SNP information does not significantly improve predictive performance relative to standard clinical traits, thereby justifying a refocusing of future efforts on collection of other data.

We present two deep generative models based on Variational Autoencoders to improve the accuracy of drug response prediction. Our models, Perturbation Variational Autoencoder and its semi-supervised extension, Drug Response Variational Autoencoder (Dr.VAE), learn latent representation of the underlying gene states before and after drug application that depend on: (i) drug-induced biological change of each gene and (ii) overall treatment response outcome. Our VAE-based models outperform the current published benchmarks in the field by anywhere from 3 to 11% AUROC and 2 to 30% AUPR. In addition, we found that better reconstruction accuracy does not necessarily lead to improvement in classification accuracy and that jointly trained models perform better than models that minimize reconstruction error independently.

Nature Communications 7: Article number: 12460 (2016); Published: 23 August 2016; Updated: 10 October 2016. The HTML version of this Article incorrectly duplicated the authors S. Louis Bridges, Lindsey Criswell, Larry Moreland, Lars Klareskog, Saedis Saevarsdottir, Leonid Padyukov, Peter K. Gregersen, Stephen Friend, Robert Plenge, Gustavo Stolovitzky, Baldo Oliva, Yuanfang Guan and Lara M.