The tendency to overestimate immigrant population sizes has garnered considerable scholarly attention for its potential link to anti-immigrant policy support. However, this existing innumeracy research has neglected other forms of ignorance, namely underestimation and nonresponse. Using the 2002 European Social Survey, the current study examines the full scope of innumeracy for the first time. Results indicate that underestimation and nonresponse occur commonly across twenty-one countries and that overestimation is far from ubiquitous. Nonresponders in particular are found to represent a distinct innumeracy form associated with low cognitive availability and high negative affect. Multilevel models indicate that underestimation associates with greater opposition to anti-immigrant policy, while overestimation and nonresponse associate with greater support. Much of these associations are explained by affective factors. However, significant under- and overestimation coefficients remain net of controls, suggesting that innumeracy may be more important than initially thought. Overall, the results highlight the multifaceted character of innumeracy.
SignificanceCynicism about lawlessness and police crime prevention and protection efforts is often high in predominately African-American neighborhoods, but residents persist in calling 911 and requesting police assistance. These calls continue to rise in neighborhoods that have recently experienced further increases in racial isolation, incarceration, and home foreclosures. These patterns are independent of statistical controls for an array of potentially confounding variables. The implication is that in the absence of alternatives, and despite past and continuing perceived police ineffectiveness, residents in racially isolated and disadvantaged neighborhoods will continue to call 911, seeking crime prevention and protection by police.
Population innumeracy (the tendency to overestimate immigrant or minority population sizes) has sparked scholarly interest. However, erroneous size estimates are not the only consequential misperception. There are also qualitative questions that are prone to error, such as the most common origin of immigrants. Using data from the Finnish National Election Survey, the current study provides the first detailed examination of misperceptions about the primary source of immigration. I consider both their extent and correlates.Results indicate that about one-fifth are incorrect, with most faultily identifying Somalia as the primary origin. These misperceptions are related significantly to media exposure and demographic factors, suggesting that they are more than random ignorance. Source misperceptions are strongly associated with perceptions of cultural threat from immigrants, suggesting potential consequences for faulty views. Overall, findings indicate that innumeracy research should expand to include misperceptions beyond size.
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