Differences in diet composition among conspecifics (dietary specialization) have been documented across a broad range of taxonomic groups and habitats, and such variation at the individual level is increasingly recognized as an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. Accurate identification of individual dietary specialization, however, requires longitudinal dietary records that are labor-intensive and cost-prohibitive to obtain for many species. Here we explore the use of stable isotopes (delta13C and delta15N) as a promising technique for detecting and quantifying patterns of individual dietary specialization. Southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) offer a unique opportunity for testing this approach because (1) they consume a wide variety of prey that span multiple trophic levels, habitats, and ecologically defined functional groups; and (2) individual diet specialization can be validated with existing observational data. We analyzed the isotopic composition of sea otter vibrissae (n = 31) in order to characterize inter- and intra-individual variation in sea otter diets at Monterey Bay, California, USA. At the population level, sea otters showed substantial variation in both delta13C and delta15N values, occupying nearly all of the "isotopic space" created by the diversity of isotopic signatures of potential prey taxa. Most of the variation in sea otter vibrissae was accounted for by differences between individuals, with much less contributed by within-individual variation. A majority of sea otters (approximately 80%) showed relatively little temporal variability in isotopic composition, suggesting that the proportional composition of most individuals' diets is relatively constant over time; a few individuals (approximately 20%) exhibited a high degree of intra-vibrissa isotopic variability, suggesting seasonal shifts in diet composition. These results and our interpretation of them were supported by long-term observational data on the diets of radio-tagged sea otters from the same population (n = 23). Our results demonstrate that stable isotopes can provide an efficient tool for measuring individual- and population-level dietary breadth and may be useful for studying populations where longitudinal data on individuals would otherwise be impossible to acquire. This will be critical for examining the causes and consequences of dietary variation within and among consumer populations, thereby improving our understanding of these important ecological and evolutionary processes at the community level.

Abstract. Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Sea otter populations in Southeast Alaska, USA, have increased dramatically from just over 400 translocated animals in the late 1960s to >8,000 by 2003. The recovery of sea otters to ecosystems from which they had been absent has affected coastal food webs, including commercially important fisheries, and thus information on expected growth and equilibrium abundances can help inform resource management. We compile available survey data for Southeast Alaska and fit a Bayesian state‐space model to estimate past trends and current abundance. Our model improves upon previous analyses by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error, accounting for over‐dispersion of aerial count data, and providing realistic measurements of uncertainty around point estimates of abundance at multiple spatial scales. We also provide estimates of carrying capacity (K) for Southeast Alaska, at regional and sub‐regional scales, and analyze growth rates, current population status and expected future trends. At the regional scale, the population increased from 13,221 otters in 2003 to 25,584 otters in 2011. The average annual growth rate in southern Southeast Alaska (7.8%) was higher than northern Southeast Alaska (2.7%); however, growth varied at the sub‐regional scale and there was a negative relationship between growth rates and the number of years sea otters were present in an area. Local populations vary in terms of current densities and expected future growth; the mean estimated density at K was 4.2 ± 1.58 sea otters/km2 of habitat (i.e., the sub‐tidal benthos between 0 m and 40 m depth) and current densities correspond on average to 50% of projected equilibrium values (range = 1–97%) with the earliest‐colonized sub‐regions tending to be closer to K. Assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities for currently un‐occupied habitats, the projected value of K for all of Southeast Alaska is 74,650 sea otters. Future analyses can improve upon the precision of K estimates by employing more frequent surveys at index sites and incorporating environmental covariates into the process model to generate more accurate, location‐specific estimates of equilibrium density. © 2019 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.