Abstract. Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5-10 %)Correspondence to: L. M. Mango (lm mango@yahoo.com) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5-3.5 • C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal changes caused by episodic disturbances and seasonal variability is essential for understanding the dynamics of mangrove forests at the landscape scale, and for building a baseline that allows detection of the effects of future environmental change. In combination with LiDAR data, we calculated four vegetation indices from 150 Landsat TM images from 1985 to 2011 in order to detect seasonal changes and distinguish them from disturbances due to hurricanes and chilling events in a mangrove‐dominated coastal landscape. We found that normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) performed best in identifying both seasonal and event‐driven episodic changes. Mangrove responses to chilling and hurricane events exhibited distinct spatial patterns. Severe damage from intense chilling events was concentrated in the interior dwarf and transition mangrove forests with tree heights less than 4 m, while severe damage from intense hurricanes was limited to the mangrove forest near the coast, where tree heights were more than 4 m. It took 4–7 months for damage from intense chilling events and hurricanes to reach their full extent, and took 2–6 yr for the mangrove forest to recover from these disturbances. There was no significant trend in the vegetation changes represented by NDMI over the 27‐yr period, but seasonal signals from both dwarf and fringe mangrove forests were discernible. Only severe damage from hurricanes and intense chilling events could be detected in Landsat images, while damage from weak chilling events could not be separated from the background seasonal change.

No abstract

No abstract

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin