Detailed critical analysis of publications devoted to QSPR of aqueous solubility is presented in the review with discussion of four types of aqueous solubility (three different thermodynamic solubilities with unknown solute structure, intrinsic solubility, solubility in physiological media at pH=7.4 and kinetic solubility), variety of molecular descriptors (from topological to quantum chemical), traditional statistical and machine learning methods as well as original QSPR models.

32 Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) models were constructed for prediction of aqueous intrinsic solubility of liquid and crystalline chemicals. Data sets contained 1022 liquid and 2615 crystalline compounds. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) methods were used to construct global models, and k-nearest neighbour (kNN), Arithmetic Mean Property (AMP) and Local Regression Property (LoReP) were used to construct local models. A set of the best QSPR models was obtained: for liquid chemicals with RMSE (root mean square error) of prediction in the range 0.50-0.60 log unit; for crystalline chemicals 0.80-0.90 log unit. In the case of global models the large number of descriptors makes mechanistic interpretation difficult. The local models use only one or two descriptors, so that a medicinal chemist working with sets of structurally-related chemicals can readily estimate their solubility. However, construction of stable local models requires the presence of closely related neighbours for each chemical considered. It is probable that a consensus of global and local QSPR models will be the optimal approach for construction of stable predictive QSPR models with mechanistic interpretation.

Solubilities of crystalline organic compounds calculated according to AMP (arithmetic mean property) and LoReP (local one-parameter regression) models based on structural and physicochemical similarities are presented. We used data on water solubility of 2615 compounds in un-ionized form measured at 25±5 °C. The calculation results were compared with the equation based on the experimental data for lipophilicity and melting point. According to statistical criteria, the model based on structural and physicochemical similarities showed a better fit with the experimental data. An additional advantage of this model is that it uses only theoretical descriptors, and this provides means for calculating water solubility for both existing and not yet synthesized compounds.

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A comparative study of classification models of brain penetration by different approaches was carried out on a training set of 1000 chemicals and drugs, and an external test set of 100 drugs. Ten approaches were applied in this work: seven medicinal chemistry approaches (including "rule of 5" and multiparameter optimization) and also three SAR techniques: logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). Forty-one different medicinal chemistry descriptors representing diverse physicochemical properties were used in this work. Medicinal chemistry approaches based on the intuitive estimation of preference zones of CNS or non-CNS chemicals, with different rules and scoring functions, yield unbalanced models with poor classification accuracy. RF and SVM methods yielded 82% and 84% classification accuracy respectively for the external test set. LR was also successful in CNS/non-CNS (denoted in this study as CNS+/CNS-) classification and yielded an overall accuracy equivalent to that of SVM and RF. At the same time, LR is especially valuable for medicinal chemists because of its simplicity and the possibility of clear mechanistic interpretation.