A key legacy of the recently launched TESS mission will be to provide the astronomical community with many of the best transiting exoplanet targets for atmospheric characterization. However, time is of the essence to take full advantage of this opportunity. JWST, although delayed, will still complete its nominal five year mission on a timeline that motivates rapid identification, confirmation, and mass measurement of the top atmospheric characterization targets from TESS. Beyond JWST, future dedicated missions for atmospheric studies such as ARIEL require the discovery and confirmation of several hundred additional sub-Jovian size planets (R p < 10 R ⊕ ) orbiting bright stars, beyond those known today, to ensure a successful statistical census of exoplanet atmospheres. Ground-based ELTs will also contribute to surveying the atmospheres of the transiting planets discovered by TESS. Here we present a set of two straightforward analytic metrics, quantifying the expected signal-to-noise in transmission and thermal emission spectroscopy for a given planet, that will allow the top atmospheric characterization targets to be readily identified among the TESS planet candidates. Targets that meet our proposed threshold values for these metrics would be encouraged for rapid follow-up and confirmation via radial velocity mass measurements. Based on the catalog of simulated TESS detections by Sullivan et al. (2015), we determine appropriate cutoff values of the metrics, such that the TESS mission will ultimately yield a sample of ∼ 300 high-quality atmospheric characterization targets across a range of planet size bins, extending down to Earth-size, potentially habitable worlds.

The Neoproterozoic is a time of transition between the ancient microbial world and the Phanerozoic, marked by a resumption of extreme carbon isotope fluctuations and glaciation after a billion-year absence. The carbon cycle disruptions are probably accompanied by changes in the stock of oxidants and connect to glaciations via changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas content. Two of the glaciations reach low latitudes and may have been Snowball events with near-global ice cover. This review deals primarily with the Cryogenian portion of the Neoproterozoic, during which these glaciations occurred. The initiation and deglaciation of Snowball states are discussed in light of a suite of general circulation model simulations designed to facilitate intercomparison between different models. Snow cover and the nature of the frozen surface emerge as key factors governing initiation and deglaciation. The most comprehensive model discussed confirms the possibility of initiating a Snowball event with a plausible reduction of CO2. Deglaciation requires a combination of elevated CO2 and tropical dust accumulation, aided by some cloud warming. The cause of Neoproterozoic biogeochemical turbulence, and its precise connection with Snowball glaciations, remains obscure.

The effect of ocean heat uptake (OHU) on transient global warming is studied in a multimodel framework. Simple heat sinks are prescribed in shallow aquaplanet ocean mixed layers underlying atmospheric general circulation models independently and combined with CO2 forcing. Sinks are localized to either tropical or high latitudes, representing distinct modes of OHU found in coupled simulations. Tropical OHU produces modest cooling at all latitudes, offsetting only a fraction of CO2 warming. High‐latitude OHU produces three times more global mean cooling in a strongly polar‐amplified pattern. Global sensitivities in each scenario are set primarily by large differences in local shortwave cloud feedbacks, robust across models. Differences in atmospheric energy transport set the pattern of temperature change. Results imply that global and regional warming rates depend sensitively on regional ocean processes setting the OHU pattern, and that equilibrium climate sensitivity cannot be reliably estimated from transient observations.

Most known terrestrial planets orbit small stars with radii less than 60% that of the Sun 1, 2 . Theoretical models predict that these planets are more vulnerable to atmospheric loss than their counterparts orbiting Sun-like stars 3-6 . To determine whether a thick atmosphere has survived on a small planet, one approach is to search for signatures of atmospheric heat redistribution in its thermal phase curve 7-10 . Previous phase curve observations of the super-Earth 55 Cancri e (1.9 Earth radii) showed that its peak brightness is offset from the substellar point -possibly indicative of atmospheric circulation 11 . Here we report a phase curve measurement for the smaller, cooler planet LHS 3844b, a 1.3 R ⊕ world in an 11-hour orbit around a small, nearby star. The observed phase variation is symmetric and has a large amplitude, implying a dayside brightness temperature of 1040±40 kelvin and a nightside temperature consistent with zero kelvin (at one standard deviation). Thick atmospheres with surface pressures above 10 bar are ruled out by the data (at three standard deviations), and less-massive atmospheres are unstable to erosion by stellar wind. The data are well fitted by a bare rock model with a low Bond albedo (lower than 0.2 at two standard deviations). These 1 arXiv:1908.06834v1 [astro-ph.EP] 19 Aug 2019 results support theoretical predictions that hot terrestrial planets orbiting small stars may not retain substantial atmospheres.We observed a light curve of the LHS 3844 system with the Spitzer InfraRed Array Camera (IRAC) 12 over 100 hours between UT 4 February 2019 and 8 February 2019 (Program 14204). We used IRAC's Channel 2 (a photometric bandpass over the wavelength range 4 − 5 µm), and read out the 32 × 32 pixel subarray in 2-second exposures. The observations began with a 30-minute dithering sequence to allow the telescope to thermally settle. Following this pre-observation, we employed Spitzer's Pointing Calibration and Reference Sensor (PCRS) peak-up mode to position the target on the detector's "sweet spot", a pixel with minimal variation in sensitivity. After the first 60 hours of observation, there was a 3-hour break for data downlink. The data collection recommenced with another 30 minute thermal settling period and continued in PCRS peak-up mode for 40 more hours. The telescope was re-pointed every 20 hours to keep the image centered on the detector sweet spot.We began our analysis with Basic Calibrated Data provided by the Spitzer Science Center (SSC) pipeline, and reduced it with a custom aperture photometry routine 13 . This routine upsampled each exposure by a factor of 5 in the X and Y dimension and fit a 2D Gaussian profile to determine the image center. We estimated the background from the median value in an annulus 7 to 15 pixels from the target center. Bad pixels were identified and masked based on iterative σ-clipping over groups of 64 exposures. We then summed the flux in a fixed aperture centered on the target. We varied the aperture size from 2 to 4 pixels in 0.5 pixel incremen...

[1] Geological and geochemical evidence can be interpreted as indicating strong hysteresis in global climate during the Neoproterozoic glacial events (∼630 Ma and ∼715 Ma). Standard climate theory only allows such strong hysteresis if global climate enters a fully-glaciated "Snowball" state. However, the survival of photosynthetic, eukaryotic, marine species through these glaciations may indicate that there were large areas of open ocean. A previously-proposed "Slushball" model for Neoproterozoic glaciations could easily explain the survival of these organisms because it has open ocean throughout the tropics, but there is only a small amount of hysteresis associated with the Slushball state. In this paper a new state of global climate, the "Jormungand" state, is proposed. In this state the ocean is very nearly globally ice-covered, but a very small strip of the tropical ocean remains ice-free. The low ice latitude of the Jormungand state is a consequence of the low albedo of snow-free (bare) sea ice. If the ice latitude propagates into the subtropical desert zone, it can stabilize without collapsing to the equator because subtropical ice-covered regions have a relatively low top-of-atmosphere albedo as a result of the exposure of bare sea ice and relatively lower cloud cover. Moreover, there is strong hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state as greenhouse gas levels are varied because of the high albedo contrast between regions of bare and snow covered sea ice. The Jormungand state is illustrated here in two different atmospheric global climate models and in the Budyko-Sellers model. By offering a scenario that could explain both strong hysteresis in global climate and the survival of life, the Jormungand state represents a potential model for Neoproterozoic glaciations, although further study of this issue is needed.

Satellite measurements and radiative calculations show that Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is an essentially linear function of surface temperature over a wide range of temperatures (≳60 K). Linearity implies that radiative forcing has the same impact in warmer as in colder climates and is thus of fundamental importance for understanding past and future climate change. Although the evidence for a nearly linear relation was first pointed out more than 50 y ago, it is still unclear why this relation is valid and when it breaks down. Here we present a simple semianalytical model that explains Earth’s linear OLR as an emergent property of an atmosphere whose greenhouse effect is dominated by a condensable gas. Linearity arises from a competition between the surface’s increasing thermal emission and the narrowing of spectral window regions with warming and breaks down at high temperatures once continuum absorption cuts off spectral windows. Our model provides a way of understanding the longwave contribution to Earth’s climate sensitivity and suggests that extrasolar planets with other condensable greenhouse gases could have climate dynamics similar to Earth’s.

Next-generation space telescopes will observe the atmospheres of rocky planets orbiting nearby M-dwarfs. Understanding these observations will require well-developed theory in addition to numerical simulations. Here we present theoretical models for the temperature structure and atmospheric circulation of dry, tidally locked rocky exoplanets with gray radiative transfer and test them using a general circulation model (GCM). First, we develop a radiative-convective (RC) model that captures surface temperatures of slowly rotating and cool atmospheres. Second, we show that the atmospheric circulation acts as a global heat engine, which places strong constraints on large-scale wind speeds. Third, we develop an RC-subsiding model which extends our RC model to hot and thin atmospheres. We find that rocky planets develop large day-night temperature gradients at a ratio of wave-toradiative timescales up to two orders of magnitude smaller than the value suggested by work on hot Jupiters. The small ratio is due to the heat engine inefficiency and asymmetry between updrafts and subsidence in convecting atmospheres. Fourth, we show, using GCM simulations, that rotation only has a strong effect on temperature structure if the atmosphere is hot or thin. Our models let us map out atmospheric scenarios for planets such as GJ 1132b, and show how thermal phase curves could constrain them. Measuring phase curves of short-period planets will require similar amounts of time on the James Webb Space Telescope as detecting molecules via transit spectroscopy, so future observations should pursue both techniques.

Next-generation space telescopes will allow us to characterize terrestrial exoplanets. To do so effectively it will be crucial to make use of all available data. We investigate which atmospheric properties can, and cannot, be inferred from the broadband thermal phase curve of a dry and tidally locked terrestrial planet. First, we use dimensional analysis to show that phase curves are controlled by six nondimensional parameters. Second, we use an idealized general circulation model (GCM) to explore the relative sensitivity of phase curves to these parameters. We find that the feature of phase curves most sensitive to atmospheric parameters is the peak-to-trough amplitude. Moreover, except for hot and rapidly rotating planets, the phase amplitude is primarily sensitive to only two nondimensional parameters: 1) the ratio of dynamical to radiative timescales, and 2) the longwave optical depth at the surface. As an application of this technique, we show how phase curve measurements can be combined with transit or emission spectroscopy to yield a new constraint for the surface pressure and atmospheric mass of terrestrial planets. We estimate that a single broadband phase curve, measured over half an orbit with the James Webb Space Telescope, could meaningfully constrain the atmospheric mass of a nearby super-Earth. Such constraints will be important for studying the atmospheric evolution of terrestrial exoplanets as well as characterizing the surface conditions on potentially habitable planets.