Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km 2 ), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.global change | hydrology | invasive species | niche model | distribution modeling N early all broad-scale analyses of climate effects on freshwater species have focused on temperature shifts, to the exclusion of other climate-driven drivers. Although temperature is a critical determinant of metabolic and physical processes (1), important ecosystem effects on streams and rivers may also be mediated by flow regime and biotic interactions. Flow regime has been described as a "master variable" (2) that controls or influences many aspects of the physical aquatic environment, as well as the timing of reproduction and migration of many organisms (3). Biotic interactions are increasingly recognized as important components of climate-species relationships (4, 5), but are rarely included in projections of species distributions under future climates, with some notable exceptions (6). Competitive interactions in particular are not commonly modeled (but see ref. 7), despite interest in invasive-native species interaction under climate change (8). It is likely that all three factors-temperature, flow regime, and biotic interactions-will play important roles in future aquatic species distributional shifts (8-11).Trout serve as excellent model organisms for examining how these mechanisms could alter population dynamics and species distributio...
Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species' range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable habitat for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Interior Columbia River Basin, USA, under recent and projected 2040s and 2080s climate conditions. The 95% interval of total suitable habitat under recent conditions was estimated at 30.1-42.5 thousand km; this was predicted to decline to 0.5-7.9 thousand km by the 2080s. Projections for the 2080s showed that the great majority of stream segments would be unsuitable with high certainty, regardless of the climate data set or bull trout model employed. The largest contributor to uncertainty in total suitable habitat was climate uncertainty, followed by parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our approach makes it possible to calculate a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species, and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat.
The electrofishing distance needed to estimate fish species richness at the stream or river reach scale is an important question in fisheries science. This distance is governed by the shape of the species accumulation curve, which, in turn, is influenced by a combination of factors, including the number of species, their overall abundances, habitat associations, the efficiency of the sampling method, and the occurrence of rare species. In this study we document the influence of rare species on the species accumulation curves from stream and river sites in data sets from five dispersed regions of the USA. Spatial discontinuity (i.e., a noncontinuous distribution within reaches) was observed in four of the five data sets, and the four data sets contained numerically rare species represented by one or two individuals (termed singletons and doubletons, respectively). Numerically rare species were typically proportionately rare (i.e., ,1% of the total number of individuals captured), but proportionately rare species were not always numerically rare and were dependent on the total number of fish captured. Species richness asymptotes were reached at shorter electrofishing distances when singletons and doubletons were removed. The number of singletons and doubletons in the samples remained relatively constant with increasing sampling effort (i.e., sampling distance and total abundance). Simulation modeling indicated that individual aggregation within species was not a plausible reason for spatially discontinuous species distributions. When accurately detecting the presence of species is a sampling goal, the presence and prevalence of numerically rare species may need to be considered in determining sampling protocols.
Peripheral populations-generally defined as those at the geographic edge of the range-often have increased conservation value due to their potential to maximize within-species biodiversity, retain important evolutionary legacies, and provide the fodder for future adaptation. However, there has been little exploration of their conservation value in aquatic systems. Inland cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) subspecies provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the distribution of peripheral populations and patterns of persistence across a wide range of environmental conditions. Our assessment analyzed range-wide losses of peripheral and core populations since the 1800s, and evaluated the likelihood of persistence for remaining populations of five cutthroat trout subspecies: Bonneville, Colorado River, Yellowstone, Rio Grande, and westslope. For all five, we found that core and peripheral populations have declined substantially, but the amounts of habitat occupied by peripheral populations generally have declined at a greater magnitude. The more isolated peripheral populations typically exhibited the greatest declines. Remaining peripheral populations often failed to meet minimum persistence criteria. Our characterization of peripheral populations and their losses emphasizes the need for closer evaluation of conservation priorities and management actions for cutthroat trout and other fishes if the values of peripheral populations are to be maintained.
Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately.
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