BackgroundPathogens transmitted by ticks cause human disease on a greater scale than any other vector-borne infections in Europe, and have increased dramatically over the past 2–3 decades. Reliable records of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) since 1970 show an especially sharp upsurge in cases in Eastern Europe coincident with the end of Soviet rule, including the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, where national incidence increased from 1992 to 1993 by 64, 175 and 1,065%, respectively. At the county level within each country, however, the timing and degree of increase showed marked heterogeneity. Climate has also changed over this period, prompting an almost universal assumption of causality. For the first time, we analyse climate and TBE epidemiology at sufficiently fine spatial and temporal resolution to question this assumption.Methodology/Principal FindingDetailed analysis of instrumental records of climate has revealed a significant step increase in spring-time daily maximum temperatures in 1989. The seasonal timing and precise level of this warming were indeed such as could promote the transmission of TBE virus between larval and nymphal ticks co-feeding on rodents. These changes in climate, however, are virtually uniform across the Baltic region and cannot therefore explain the marked spatio-temporal heterogeneity in TBE epidemiology.Conclusions/SignificanceInstead, it is proposed that climate is just one of many different types of factors, many arising from the socio-economic transition associated with the end of Soviet rule, that have acted synergistically to increase both the abundance of infected ticks and the exposure of humans to these ticks. Understanding the precise differential contribution of each factor as a cause of the observed epidemiological heterogeneity will help direct control strategies.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), the most serious widespread vector-borne disease of humans in Europe, increased from 2- to 30-fold in many Central and Eastern European countries from 1992 to 1993, coinciding with independence from Soviet rule. Unemployment and low income have been shown in Latvia to be statistically associated with high-risk behaviour involving harvest of wild foods from tick-infested forests, and also with not being vaccinated against TBE. Archival data for 1970--2005 record major changes in the agricultural and industrial sectors, and consequent changes in the abiotic and biotic environment and socio-economic conditions, which could have increased the abundance of infected ticks and the contact of humans with those ticks. For example, abandoned agricultural fields became suitable for rodent transmission hosts; use of pesticides and emissions of atmospheric industrial pollutants plummeted; wildlife hosts for ticks increased; tick populations appear to have responded; unemployment and inequality increased in all countries. These factors, by acting synergistically but differentially between and within each country, can explain the marked spatio-temporal heterogeneities in TBE epidemiology better than can climate change alone, which is too uniform across wide areas. Different degrees of socio-economic upheaval caused by political transition in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic can apparently explain the marked variation in TBE upsurge. Causal linkage between national socio-economic conditions and epidemiology is strongly indicated by striking correlations across eight countries between the degree of upsurge of TBE and both poverty and household expenditure on food (R2 = 0.533 and 0.716, respectively).

ObjectiveTo explore whether thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration in patients with a diagnosis of hypothyroidism is associated with increased all cause mortality and a higher risk of cardiovascular disease and fractures.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingThe Health Improvement Network (THIN), a database of electronic patient records from UK primary care.ParticipantsAdult patients with incident hypothyroidism from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2017.ExposureTSH concentration in patients with hypothyroidism.Main outcome measuresIschaemic heart disease, heart failure, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, atrial fibrillation, any fractures, fragility fractures, and mortality. Longitudinal TSH measurements from diagnosis to outcomes, study end, or loss to follow-up were collected. An extended Cox proportional hazards model with TSH considered as a time varying covariate was fitted for each outcome.Results162 369 patients with hypothyroidism and 863 072 TSH measurements were included in the analysis. Compared with the reference TSH category (2-2.5 mIU/L), risk of ischaemic heart disease and heart failure increased at high TSH concentrations (>10 mIU/L) (hazard ratio 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.38; P=0.03) and 1.42 (1.21 to 1.67; P<0.001), respectively). A protective effect for heart failure was seen at low TSH concentrations (hazard ratio 0.79 (0.64 to 0.99; P=0.04) for TSH <0.1 mIU/L and 0.76 (0.62 to 0.92; P=0.006) for 0.1-0.4 mIU/L). Increased mortality was observed in both the lowest and highest TSH categories (hazard ratio 1.18 (1.08 to 1.28; P<0.001), 1.29 (1.22 to 1.36; P<0.001), and 2.21 (2.07 to 2.36; P<0.001) for TSH <0.1 mIU/L, 4-10 mIU/L, and >10 mIU/L. An increase in the risk of fragility fractures was observed in patients in the highest TSH category (>10 mIU/L) (hazard ratio 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31; P=0.03)).ConclusionsIn patients with a diagnosis of hypothyroidism, no evidence was found to suggest a clinically meaningful difference in the pattern of long term health outcomes (all cause mortality, atrial fibrillation, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, fractures) when TSH concentrations were within recommended normal limits. Evidence was found for adverse health outcomes when TSH concentration is outside this range, particularly above the upper reference value.

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Although the presence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus circulating in tick populations depends on large-scale patterns of climate, and the local density of infected ticks depends on the abundance of mammalian hosts, the risk of human infection depends on the access and use by human populations of tick-infested habitats, particularly forests, at the landscape level. We investigated the incidence of reported TBE cases in rural parishes (i.e., municipalities) in Latvia. The following major characteristics of parishes were considered: whether their environment is suitable for tick and tick-host populations (depending on land cover); whether the local human population is likely to enter the forest on a regular base (depending on land use); and whether the spatial distributions of these two aspects are likely to intersect, through access rules (as a function of land ownership). The results indicated that all three aspects are important in explaining and predicting the spatial distribution of TBE cases in the rural areas of Latvia. The concept of landscape is here given new depth by consideration of its physical structure, its use by human populations, and its accessibility as modulated by ownership.

BackgroundMaternity services should take into account the needs of all women, including those related to disability. No reliable information, however, exists on the extent and characteristics of disability in this population in the UK. This brief report provides an overview of the prevalence of disability in women giving birth in the UK as measured by the presence of a limiting longstanding illness (LLI). The demographic, socio-economic, lifestyle and pregnancy related characteristics and child health outcomes are summarised to inform maternity and postnatal care service planning, and policy development.MethodsSecondary analysis of data on 18,231 mother-child pairs from the nationally representative UK Millennium Cohort Study. The baseline interviews with families were carried out in 2001-2002. The LLI prevalence in women who had recently delivered was estimated, and relevant characteristics and differences in outcomes compared using descriptive statistics taking into account the study design and non-response.Results9.4% (95% CI 8.7-10.0) of women who had recently given birth reported having an LLI. Musculoskeletal, respiratory and mental disorders accounted for most of the health problems. A significantly higher proportion of women with an LLI received means-tested financial benefits, had no educational qualifications and suffered from intimate partner violence compared to women who did not have an LLI (49.3% vs 35.3%, 20.4% vs 15.0%, 6.0% vs 3.3%, respectively). They were also more likely to smoke throughout pregnancy than women without an LLI (29.2% vs 20.8%), have a preterm birth (10.9% vs 6.8%) and be lone parents (19.5% vs 13.9%). Only 25.6% of children of mothers with an LLI were breastfed for more than three months compared to 33.4% of infants of mothers who did not have an LLI. At the age of seven years, 12.0% of children of mothers with an LLI had an activity limiting health problem themselves compared to 6.2% of children of mothers without an LLI.ConclusionsDisability in women who had recently delivered is relatively common. It is associated with social and economic inequalities and worse pregnancy and child related outcomes. Apart from condition-specific support during and after pregnancy, disabled women may require extra help from health professionals to quit smoking, continue breastfeeding, and reduce intimate partner violence.

Context Mortality and infection-related hospital admissions are increased in patients with primary adrenal insufficiency (PAI). However, the risk of primary care–managed infections in patients with PAI is unknown. Objective To estimate infection risk in PAI due to Addison’s disease (AD) and congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) in a primary care setting. Design Retrospective cohort study using UK data collected from 1995 to 2018. Main outcome measures Incidence of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), urinary tract infections (UTIs), gastrointestinal infections (GIIs), and prescription counts of antimicrobials in adult PAI patients compared to unexposed controls. Results A diagnosis of PAI was established in 1580 AD patients (mean age 51.7 years) and 602 CAH patients (mean age 35.4 years). All AD patients and 42% of CAH patients were prescribed glucocorticoids, most frequently hydrocortisone in AD (82%) and prednisolone in CAH (50%). AD and CAH patients exposed to glucocorticoids, but not CAH patients without glucocorticoid treatment, had a significantly increased risk of LRTIs (adjusted incidence rate ratio AD 2.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64–2.69], CAH 3.23 [95% CI 1.21–8.61]), UTIs (AD 1.51 [95% CI 1.29–1.77], CAH 2.20 [95% CI 1.43–3.34]), and GIIs (AD 3.80 [95% CI 2.99–4.84], CAH 1.93 [95% CI 1.06–3.52]). This was mirrored by increased prescription of antibiotics (AD 1.73 [95% CI 1.69–1.77], CAH 1.77 [95% CI 1.66–1.89]) and antifungals (AD 1.89 [95% CI 1.74–2.05], CAH 1.91 [95% CI 1.50–2.43]). Conclusions There is an increased risk of infections and antimicrobial use in PAI in the primary care setting at least partially linked to glucocorticoid treatment. Future studies will need to address whether more physiological glucocorticoid replacement modes could reduce this risk.

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