INTRODUCTIONIn the study to be described, we examine the declining use, over time of eight technologies, all pharmaceuticals, by a professional group, practitioners of medicine. For the sake of argument, we begin by assuming that the abandonment of these drugs might appropriately be viewed as a reverse of the process of adoption -the "acceptance" of a piece of "negative" information, first by "opinion leaders" and then others whom they influence. We will, however, offer empirical evidence that causes us to seriously doubt the validity of that assumption. We discuss the possible significance of our observations and suggest some directions for further study. A common thread that runs through much of the adoption research is a concept of contagion or spread, borrowed from the biology of epidemics, and an S-shaped curve that describes it (see Rankings of Periods Used in Test of S-Shaped CurveOSAGE lEVZL TI»Z -4-relatlng the change over time (t) If the "coefficient of innovation" (a) is set to 0, the logistic model remains, with the "coefficient of imitation" (b) equivalent to theThe Bass model and the other variants of the traditional logistic function offered to explain innovation-adoption about which we are aware still have S-shaped graphical representations. In our review of the literature, we were unable to identify any research that systematically -5-consldered whether the abandonment of technology could appropriately be described by an analytic model of one of these forms or another form.
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