Michigan (MI) has a long history of diverse agricultural production. One of the most rapidly expanding and profitable agricultural crops, wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.), has only been in cultivation across MI since the 1970s. As of 2014 more than 2100 acres of Vitis vinifera were growing statewide. With such success there is a push to rapidly develop more vinifera vineyards across the state. The industry is striving to have 10,000 acres in cultivation by 2024. This study presents a data-driven approach for guiding decision making to make this goal attainable. The study models land suitability across the state using environmental, climate, topographic and land use data to understand the most to least ideal portions of the landscape for vinifera establishment. The models are tested in 17 MI counties. The study found that land suitability for viticulture has expanded and therefore, viticulture can be extended beyond the traditional growing areas. This study suggests that warming temperatures have influenced land suitability and demonstrates the application and utility of GIS-based land suitability modeling in viticulture development. Maps produced in this study provide knowledge of the climate and environmental trends, which is critical when choosing where and what cultivar to grow. With such resources, growers can be better prepared to invest and expand this pivotal agricultural sector.
Vinifera cultivation is a thriving and growing industry across the state of Michigan (MI), United States. Extensive time, funds, and effort have been applied by the industry to promote growth and the onset of new producers. Specifically, Vitis vinifera wine grapes, which have been cultivated in MI since the 1970s, have seen a rapid expansion and investment from both first-time and legacy growers. However, historically, the climate of MI presented a challenge for cultivation because of low growing season temperatures (GSTs), short growing seasons, and excessive precipitation at the time of harvest. Over time, two key factors have led the MI wine industry to overcome the challenging climate. First, as seen in the literature, there are noted changes in climate, especially since the late 1980s, leading to more favorable conditions for cultivation. Second, MI growers traditionally focused on V. vinifera cultivation, which is susceptible to low winter temperatures, selected less vulnerable regions within the state while also focusing on vine protection techniques. Given the rapid growth of the wine industry across MI, there is a need to understand suitability and its drivers to help all growers make economically impactful decisions on production and expansion of wine grapes. This article looked to study the suitability of MI vinifera across the state in two ways. Initially, through an extensive literature review, the key drivers and commonly noted trends guiding vinifera production were chronicled. Second, through a trend analysis of the key drivers of suitability, the study investigated how such variables are changing significantly over space and time. The results of this study expand the knowledge of cool climate agriculture production and suitability for cultivation and highlight the complexity of relating suitability drivers for non-cool climate to cool climate vinifera cultivation.
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