Many distant objects can only be detected, or become more scientifically valuable, if they have been highly magnified by strong gravitational lensing. We use eagle and bahamas, two recent cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, to predict the probability distribution for both the lens mass and lens redshift when point sources are highly magnified by gravitational lensing. For sources at a redshift of 2, we find the distribution of lens redshifts to be broad, peaking at z ≈ 0.6. The contribution of different lens masses is also fairly broad, with most high-magnification lensing due to lenses with halo masses between 1012 and $10^{14} \mathrm{\, M_\odot }$. Lower mass haloes are inefficient lenses, while more massive haloes are rare. We find that a simple model in which all haloes have singular isothermal sphere density profiles can approximately reproduce the simulation predictions, although such a model overpredicts the importance of haloes with mass $\lt 10^{12} \mathrm{\, M_\odot }$ for lensing. We also calculate the probability that point sources at different redshifts are strongly lensed. At low redshift, high magnifications are extremely unlikely. Each z = 0.5 source produces, on average, 5 × 10−7 images with magnification greater than 10; for z = 2, this increases to about 2 × 10−5. Our results imply that searches for strongly lensed optical transients, including the optical counterparts to strongly lensed gravitational waves, can be optimized by monitoring massive galaxies, groups, and clusters rather than concentrating on an individual population of lenses.
Motivated by discovering strongly lensed supernovae, gravitational waves, and kilonovae in the 2020s, we investigate whether to build a watchlist of clusters based on observed cluster properties (i.e. lens-plane selection) or on the detectability of strongly lensed background galaxies (i.e. source-plane selection). First, we estimate the fraction of high-redshift transient progenitors that reside in galaxies that are themselves too faint to be detected as being strongly lensed. We find ∼15–50 per cent of transient progenitors reside in z = 1 − 2 galaxies too faint to be detected in surveys that reach AB ≃ 23, such as the Dark Energy Survey. This falls to ≲10 per cent at depths that will be probed by early data releases of LSST (AB ≃ 25). Secondly, we estimate a conservative lower limit on the fraction of strong-lensing clusters that will be missed by magnitude-limited searches for multiply imaged galaxies and giant arcs due to the faintness of such images. We find that DES-like surveys will miss ∼75 per cent of 1015 M⊙ strong-lensing clusters, rising to ∼100 per cent of 1014 M⊙ clusters. Deeper surveys, such as LSST, will miss ∼40 per cent at 1015 M⊙ and ∼95 per cent at 1014 M⊙. Our results motivate building a cluster watchlist for strongly lensed transients that includes those found by the lens-plane selection.
Secure confirmation that a gravitational wave (GW) has been gravitationally lensed would bring together these two pillars of General Relativity for the first time. This breakthrough is challenging for many reasons, including: GW sky localization uncertainties dwarf the angular scale of gravitational lensing, the mass and structure of gravitational lenses is diverse, the mass function of stellar remnant compact objects is not yet well constrained, and GW detectors do not operate continuously. We introduce a new approach that is agnostic to the mass and structure of the lenses, compare the efficiency of different methods for lensed GW discovery, and explore detection of lensed kilonova counterparts as a direct method for localising candidates. Our main conclusions are: (1) lensed neutron star mergers (NS-NS) are magnified into the ‘mass gap’ between NS and black holes, therefore selecting candidates from public GW alerts with high mass gap probability is efficient, (2) the rate of detectable lensed NS-NS will approach one per year in the mid-2020s, (3) the arrival time difference between lensed NS-NS images is $1\, \rm sec\lesssim \Delta t\lesssim 1\, year$, and thus well-matched to the operations of GW detectors and optical telescopes, (4) lensed kilonova counterparts are faint at peak (e.g. rAB ≃ 24 − 26 in the mid-2020s), fade quickly ($d<2\, \rm days$), and are detectable with target of opportunity observations with large wide-field telescopes. For example, just ≲ 0.25 per cent of Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s observing time will be sufficient to follow up one well-localized candidate per year. Our predictions also provide a physically well-defined basis for exploring electromagnetically the exciting new ‘mass gap’ discovery space.
The first secure detection of a gravitationally lensed gravitational (GW) will be a watershed moment, as it will bring together these two pillars of General Relativity for the first time. Accurate selection and interpretation of candidate lensed GWs is challenging for numerous reasons, including large sky localization uncertainties for most GW detections, the broad range of gravitational lenses spanning galaxy/group/cluster-scales in the dark matter halo mass function, and uncertainty in the intrinsic mass function of compact object remnants of stellar evolution. We introduce a new magnification-based approach to predicting the rates of lensed GWs that is agnostic to the mass and structure of the lenses and combine it with expressions for arrival time difference for representative lenses and their catastrophes to delineate the range of expected arrival time differences. We also predict the lightcurves of lensed kilonova counterparts to lensed binary neutron star (NS-NS) mergers and assess the feasibility of detection with the Vera Rubin Observatory. Our main conclusions are: (1) selection of candidate lensed NS-NS mergers from the mass gap between NS and black holes in low latency is an efficient approach with a rate approaching one per year in the mid-2020s, (2) the arrival time differences of lensed NS-NS/kilonovae are typically 1 year, and thus well-matched to the operations of GW detectors and optical telescopes, and (3) detection of lensed kilonovae is feasible with the Vera Rubin Observatory. Whilst our predictions are motivated by lensing, they provide a physically well-understood approach to exploring the mass gap electromagnetically as the number of detections in this exciting region of parameter space grows.
We search for gravitational wave (GW) events from LIGO-Virgo's third run that may have been affected by gravitational lensing. Gravitational lensing delays the arrival of GWs, and alters their amplitude -thus biasing the inferred progenitor masses. This would provide a physically well-understood interpretation of GW detections in the "mass gap" between neutron stars and black holes, as gravitationally lensed binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We selected three GW detections in LIGO-Virgo's third run for which the probability of at least one of the constituent compact objects being in the mass gap was reported as high with low latency -i.e. candidate lensed BNS mergers. Our observations of powerful strong lensing clusters located adjacent to the peak of their sky localisation error maps reached a sensitivity AB 25.5 in the 𝑧 -band with the GMOS instruments on the Gemini telescopes, and detected no candidate lensed optical counterparts. We combine recent kilonova lightcurve models with recent predictions of the lensed BNS population and the properties of the objects that we followed up to show that realistic optical counterparts were detectable in our observations. Further detailed analysis of two of the candidates suggests that they are a plausible pair of images of the same low-mass binary black hole merger, lensed by a local galaxy or small group of galaxies. This further underlines that access to accurate mass information with low latency would improve the efficiency of candidate lensed NS-NS selection.
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