The study investigates the role of financial stress in triggering exchange rate volatility in developing Asia, where instability in financial markets contributes to the extent of exogenous shocks. We investigate volatility clustering in nominal exchange rate (NER) of dollar-denominated domestic currencies of developing Asia. Using country-level monthly time series data from 2006 to 2019 of NER and financial stress for seven representative economies of developing Asia, namely, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Thailand, we construct conditional volatility of returns. With volatility clustering in dollar-denominated exchange rates, we find significant bi-directional and predictive causality in exchange rate volatility and financial stress using vector autoregressive model and test for Granger’s causality. Our findings corroborate with the third-generation model of currency crises in the context of emerging economies. For developing Asian nations, our study implicates the strength of the financial system impacting the level and spread of stress, inducing exchange rate volatility. Our empirical model propounds that though stress is driven by multiple factors, management of exchange rate volatility in emerging economies will need to address problems not only in the foreign exchange market, but also in other financial sectors. JEL Codes: G01, F31, C58
India’s non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs), broadly constituting the less-regulated shadow banking sector, have been plagued with scams, triggering a domino effect in the Indian money market. Major corporate governance issues were highlighted in NBFIs with the unfurling of the ILF&S fraud; it virtually created a sub-prime crisis. In such a scenario, where the shadow banking sector was subject to change in regulations to ensure vigilance, corporate governance lapses had again led to the meltdown of Kapil Wadhawan led Dewan Housing Finance Limited (DHFL). Registering a net profit growth of 25% in the third quarter of financial year 2017, DHFL was one of India’s leading housing finance companies with a value of whopping ₹1.01 trillion as its asset under management (AUM). The company had nose-dived from its coveted position, suffering a loss of ₹22.23 million for the last quarter of the financial year 2018–2019. The company’s credit ratings of commercial papers and non-convertible debentures were downgraded; non-payment of interests led to enforcement of resolution plan, with the board of directors acceding to nationalized banks. The company’s reputation had crashed with its share prices, amidst allegations of lookout notice issued for its promoters for siphoning funds through shell companies. The case describes the oversights and negligence of DHFL in terms of corporate governance practices in the context of the NBFC (non-banking financial company) sector. The jury is out to evaluate whether Wadhawan had followed the rules of corporate governance in letter and spirit, or the tightening noose of regulations and market sentiments around the ‘shadow banking’ sector of India spelt doom for DHFL.
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