This powerful new land surface modeling system integrates data from advanced observing systems to support improved forecast model initialization and hydrometeorological investigations. Land surface temperature and wetness conditions affect and are affected by numerous climatological, meteorological, ecological, and geophysical phenomena. Therefore, accurate, high-resolution estimates of terrestrial water and energy storages are valuable for predicting climate change, weather, biological and agricultural productivity, and flooding, and for performing a wide array of studies in the broader biogeosciences. In particular, terrestrial stores of energy and water modulate fluxes between the land and atmosphere and exhibit persistence on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales. Furthermore, because soil moisture, temperature, and snow are integrated states, biases in land surface forcing data and parameterizations accumulate as errors in the representations of these states in operational numerical weather forecast and climate models and their associated coupled data assimilation systems. That leads to incorrect surface water and energy partitioning, and, hence, inaccurate predictions. Reinitialization of land surface states would mollify this problem if the land surface fields were reliable and available globally, at high spatial resolution, and in near-real time.A Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) has been developed jointly by scientists at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in order to produce such fields. GLDAS makes use of the new generation of groundand space-based observation systems, which provide data to constrain the modeled land surface states. Constraints are applied in two ways. First, by forcing the land surface models (LSMs) with observationbased meteorological fields, biases in atmospheric model-based forcing can be avoided. Second, by employing data assimilation techniques, observations of land surface states can be used to curb unrealistic model states. Through innovation and an ever-improving conceptualization of the physics underlying earth system processes, LSMs have continued to evolve and to display an improved ability to simulate complex phenomena. Concurrently, increases in computing power and affordability are allowing global simulations to be run more routinely and with less processing time, at spatial resolutions that could only be simulated using supercomputers five years ago. GLDAS harnesses this low-cost computing power to integrate observationbased data products from multiple sources within a sophisticated, global, high-resolution land surface modeling framework.What makes GLDAS unique is the union of all of these qualities: it is a global, high-resolution, offline (uncoupled to the atmosphere) terrestrial modeling system that incorporates satellite-and ground-based observations in order to produce opt...

[1] Results are presented from the multi-institution partnership to develop a real-time and retrospective North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). NLDAS consists of (1) four land models executing in parallel in uncoupled mode, (2) common hourly surface forcing, and (3) common streamflow routing: all using a 1/8°grid over the continental United States. The initiative is largely sponsored by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP). As the overview for nine NLDAS papers, this paper describes and evaluates the 3-year NLDAS execution of 1 October 1996 to 30 September 1999, a period rich in observations for validation. The validation emphasizes (1) the land states, fluxes, and input forcing of four land models, (2) the application of new GCIP-sponsored products, and (3) a multiscale approach. The validation includes (1) mesoscale observing networks of land surface forcing, fluxes, and states, (2) regional snowpack measurements, (3) daily streamflow measurements, and (4) satellite-based retrievals of snow cover, land surface skin temperature (LST), and surface insolation. The results show substantial intermodel differences in surface evaporation and runoff (especially over nonsparse vegetation), soil moisture storage, snowpack, and LST. Owing to surprisingly large intermodel differences in aerodynamic conductance, intermodel differences in midday summer LST were unlike those expected from the intermodel differences in Bowen ratio. Last, anticipating future assimilation of LST, an NLDAS effort unique to this overview paper assesses geostationary-satellite-derived LST, determines the latter to be of good quality, and applies the latter to validate modeled LST.

Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

The accuracy of forcing data greatly impacts the ability of land surface models (LSMs) to produce realistic simulations of land surface processes. With this in mind, the multi‐institutional North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project has produced retrospective (1996–2002) and real‐time (1999–present) data sets to support its LSM modeling activities. Featuring 0.125° spatial resolution, hourly temporal resolution, nine primary forcing fields, and six secondary validation/model development fields, each data set is based on a backbone of Eta Data Assimilation System/Eta data and is supplemented with observation‐based precipitation and radiation data. Hourly observation‐based precipitation data are derived from a combination of daily National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gauge‐based precipitation analyses and hourly National Weather Service Doppler radar‐based (WSR‐88D) precipitation analyses, wherein the hourly radar‐based analyses are used to temporally disaggregate the daily CPC analyses. NLDAS observation‐based shortwave values are derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite radiation data processed at the University of Maryland and at the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Extensive quality control and validation efforts have been conducted on the NLDAS forcing data sets, and favorable comparisons have taken place with Oklahoma Mesonet, Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program/cloud and radiation test bed, and Surface Radiation observation data. The real‐time forcing data set is constantly evolving to make use of the latest advances in forcing‐related data sets, and all of the real‐time and retrospective data are available online at http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov for visualization and downloading in both full and subset forms.

[1] This is the second part of a study on continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation conducted in phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project (NLDAS-2). The first part concentrates on a model-by-model comparison of mean annual and monthly water fluxes, energy fluxes and state variables. In this second part, the focus is on the validation of simulated streamflow from four land surface models (Noah, Mosaic, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA), and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models) and their ensemble mean. Comparisons are made against 28-years (1 October 1979-30 September 2007) of United States Geological Survey observed streamflow for 961 small basins and 8 major basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Relative bias, anomaly correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) statistics at daily to annual time scales are used to assess model-simulated streamflow. The Noah (the Mosaic) model overestimates (underestimates) mean annual runoff and underestimates (overestimates) mean annual evapotranspiration. The SAC-SMA and VIC models simulate the mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration well when compared with the observations. The ensemble mean is closer to the mean annual observed streamflow for both the 961 small basins and the 8 major basins than is the mean from any individual model. All of the models, as well as the ensemble mean, have large daily, weekly, monthly, and annual streamflow anomaly correlations for most basins over the CONUS, implying strong simulation skill. However, the daily, weekly, and monthly NSE analysis results are not necessarily encouraging, in particular for daily streamflow. The Noah and Mosaic models are useful (NSE > 0.4) only for about 10% of the 961 small basins, the SAC-SMA and VIC models are useful for about 30% of the 961 small basins, and the ensemble mean is useful for about 42% of the 961 small basins. As the time scale increases, the NSE increases as expected. However, even for monthly streamflow, the ensemble mean is useful for only 75% of the 961 small basins.

The ability to simulate coupled energy and water fluxes over large continental river basins, in particular streamflow, was largely nonexistent a decade ago. Since then, macroscale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed, which predict such fluxes at continental and subcontinental scales. Because the runoff formulation in MHMs must be parameterized because of the large spatial scale at which they are implemented, some calibration of model parameters is inevitably necessary. However, calibration is a time-consuming process and quickly becomes infeasible when the modeled area or the number of basins increases. A methodology for model parameter transfer is described that limits the number of basins requiring direct calibration. Parameters initially were estimated for nine large river basins. As a first attempt to transfer parameters, the global land area was grouped by climate zone, and model parameters were transferred within zones. The transferred parameters were then used to simulate the water balance in 17 other continental river basins. Although the parameter transfer approach did not reduce the bias and root-mean-square error (rmse) for each individual basin, in aggregate the transferred parameters reduced the relative (monthly) rmse from 121% to 96% and the mean bias from 41% to 36%. Subsequent direct calibration of all basins further reduced the relative rmse to an average of 70% and the bias to 12%. After transferring the parameters globally, the mean annual global runoff increased 9.4% and evapotranspiration decreased by 5.0% in comparison with an earlier global simulation using uncalibrated parameters. On a continental basis, the changes in runoff and evapotranspiration were much larger. A diagnosis of simulation errors for four basins with particularly poor results showed that most of the error was attributable to bias in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation products used to drive the MHM.

No abstract

In support of the World Climate Research Program GEWEX Continental‐Scale International Project (GCIP) and the GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP), real‐time estimates of shortwave radiative fluxes, both at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, are being produced operationally by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service using observations from GOES images. The inference scheme has been developed at the Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, and the atmospheric and surface model input parameters are produced and provided by the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The radiative fluxes are being evaluated on hourly, daily, and monthly timescales using observations at about 50 stations. The satellite estimates have been found to be within acceptable limits during snow‐free periods, but the difficulty in detecting clouds over snow affects the accuracy during the winter season. In what follows, this activity is discussed, and evaluation results of the derived fluxes against ground observations for time periods of 1–2 years are presented.