Abstract. We study bulk formulations for the boundary-layer height which are currently in use for atmospheric modelling. The formulations are based on various forms of the Richardson number, and these are evaluated with Cabauw field data in stable conditions. Results for both a large-eddy simulation model and an E-e turbulence closure model for neutral boundary layers are also utilised. An updated formulation is introduced, which combines the effects of shear in the outer region of the boundary layer with surface friction. The updated formulation has a better performance for neutral boundary layers with upper level stratification. The findings are illustrated with a single-column model for a case with relatively high winds over the tropical ocean including shallow cumulus convection, and for a case with fair weather over land. We also show that for stable conditions, the updated formulation performs better than estimates on the basis of surface friction alone.
The development and verification of a new model output statistics (MOS) system is described; this system is intended to help forecasters decide whether a weather alarm for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning intensity, should be issued in the Netherlands. The system consists of logistic regression equations for both the probability of thunderstorms and the conditional probability of severe thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October). These equations have been derived for 12 regions of about 90 km ϫ 80 km each and for projections out to 12 h in advance (with 6-h periods). As a source for the predictands, reprocessed total lightning data from the Surveillance et d'Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) network have been used. The potential predictor dataset not only consisted of the combined postprocessed output from two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as in previous work by the first three authors, but it also contained an ensemble of advected radar and lightning data for the 0-6-h projections. The NWP model output dataset contained 17 traditional thunderstorm indices, computed from a reforecasting experiment with the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) and postprocessed output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. Brier skill scores and attributes diagrams show that the skill of the MOS thunderstorm forecast system is good and that the severe thunderstorm forecast system generally is also skillful, compared to the 2000-04 climatology, and therefore, the preoperational system was made operational at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) in 2008.
The derivation and verification of logistic regression equations for the (conditional) probability of (severe) thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October) in the Netherlands is described. For 12 regions of about 90 km × 80 km each, and for projections out to 48 h in advance (with 6-h periods), these equations have been derived using model output statistics (MOS). As a source for the predictands, lightning data from the Surveillance et d’Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) network have been used. The potential predictor dataset mainly consisted of the combined (postprocessed) output from two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It contained 15 traditional thunderstorm indices, computed from the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM), and (postprocessed) output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. The most important predictor in the thunderstorm forecast system is the square root of the ECMWF 6-h convective precipitation sum, and the most important predictor in the severe thunderstorm forecast system is the HIRLAM Boyden index. The success of the square root of the ECMWF 6-h convective precipitation sum as a thunderstorm predictor indicates that there is a strong relation between the forecast convective precipitation by the ECMWF model and the occurrence of thunderstorms, at least in the Netherlands up to 3 days in advance. The overall verification results for the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC runs of the MOS (severe) thunderstorm forecast system are good, and, therefore, the system was made operational at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) in April 2004.
A review is given of the climatological and actual meteorological conditions in the sub‐tropical northeast Atlantic, during June–July 1997, when the 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE‐2) took place. Surface pressure maps, trajectory calculations and in‐situ measurements show how the outflow of European pollution into the marine boundary layer of this area is determined by the location of the Azores high pressure cell. Observations during ACE‐2 and 3 preceding summers show that pollution outbreaks both from the Iberian peninsula and from northern or central Europe can occur during such situations. During ACE‐2, an unusually low number of strong North African dust outbreaks were recorded at the free tropospheric station of Izaña (Tenerife, 2360 m asl), although dust was recorded aloft the station.
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