The use of deterministic methods in the assessment of process equipment tube integrity due to flow-induced vibration has become general practice. In cases were susceptibility of the tubes to fretting wear is addressed, nonlinear structural dynamic simulations are often required in order to quantify the work rate. In operating process components such as nuclear heat exchangers and steam generators the range of values for the key parameters such as flow regime, support clearances, manufacturing tolerances, tube/support material, etc. can vary to quite an extent. As a result, probabilistic techniques are proposed to account for the lack of well-posed input parameters needed for the nonlinear flow-induced vibration predictions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates an existing nonlinear time domain solution for tube response is described. An application of the technique to a nuclear steam generator is presented. The effect of variability of a number of key parameters on work rate is discussed along with the attendant implications.
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