The understanding of sea ice mass balance processes requires continuous monitoring of the seasonal evolution of the ice thickness. While autonomous ice mass balance (IMB) buoys deployed over the past two decades have contributed to scientists' understanding of ice growth and decay processes, deployment has been limited, in part, by the cost of such systems. Routine, basinwide monitoring of the ice cover is realistically achievable through a network of reliable and affordable autonomous instrumentation. This paper describes the development of a novel autonomous platform and sensor that replaces the traditional thermistor strings for monitoring temperature profiles in the ice and snow using a chain of inexpensive digital temperature chip sensors linked by a single-wire data bus. By incorporating a heating element into each sensor, the instrument is capable of resolving material interfaces (e.g., air-snow and ice-ocean boundaries) even under isothermal conditions. The instrument is small, low cost, and easy to deploy. Field and laboratory tests of the sensor chain demonstrate that the technology can reliably resolve material boundaries to within a few centimeters. The discrimination between different media based on sensor thermal response is weak in some deployments and efforts to optimize the performance continue.
The Lepsy fault of the northern Tien Shan, SE Kazakhstan, extends E‐W 120 km from the high mountains of the Dzhungarian Ala‐tau, a subrange of the northern Tien Shan, into the low‐lying Kazakh platform. It is an example of an active structure that connects a more rapidly deforming mountain region with an apparently stable continental region and follows a known Palaeozoic structure. Field‐based and satellite observations reveal an ∼10 m vertical offset exceptionally preserved along the entire length of the fault. Geomorphic analysis and age control from radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating methods indicate that the scarp formed in the Holocene and was generated by at least two substantial earthquakes. The most recent event, dated to sometime after ∼400 years B.P., is likely to have ruptured the entire ∼120 km fault length in a Mw 7.5–8.2 earthquake. The Lepsy fault kinematics were characterized using digital elevation models and high‐resolution satellite imagery, which indicate that the predominant sense of motion is reverse right lateral with a fault strike, dip, and slip vector azimuth of ∼110°, 50°S, and 317–343°, respectively, which is consistent with predominant N‐S shortening related to the India‐Eurasia collision. In light of these observations, and because the activity of the Lepsy fault would have been hard to ascertain if it had not ruptured in the recent past, we note that the absence of known active faults within low‐relief and low strain rate continental interiors does not always imply an absence of seismic hazard.
The 11 July 1889 Chilik earthquake (Mw 8.0–8.3) forms part of a remarkable sequence of large earthquakes in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the northern Tien Shan. Despite its importance, the source of the 1889 earthquake remains unknown, though the macroseismic epicenter is sited in the Chilik valley, ~100 km southeast of Almaty, Kazakhstan (~2 million population). Several short fault segments that have been inferred to have ruptured in 1889 are too short on their own to account for the estimated magnitude. In this paper we perform detailed surveying and trenching of the ~30 km long Saty fault, one of the previously inferred sources, and find that it was formed in a single earthquake within the last 700 years, involving surface slip of up to 10 m. The scarp‐forming event, likely to be the 1889 earthquake, was the only surface‐rupturing event for at least 5000 years and potentially for much longer. From satellite imagery we extend the mapped length of fresh scarps within the 1889 epicentral zone to a total of ~175 km, which we also suggest as candidate ruptures from the 1889 earthquake. The 175 km of rupture involves conjugate oblique left‐lateral and right‐lateral slip on three separate faults, with step overs of several kilometers between them. All three faults were essentially invisible in the Holocene geomorphology prior to the last slip. The recurrence interval between large earthquakes on any of these faults, and presumably on other faults of the Tien Shan, may be longer than the timescale over which the landscape is reset, providing a challenge for delineating sources of future hazard.
We present a new three-dimensional (3D) approach to the analysis of fault scarps using high-resolution elevation models. Advances in topographic measurement techniques [e.g., lidar (light detection and ranging) and photogrammetric techniques] have allowed extensive measurement of single earthquake and cumulative scarps to draw conclusions about along-strike slip variation and fault slip history. The resulting slip distributions are almost always variable and noisy, but the cause is often unclear. We first present the results of sensitivity analysis to demonstrate significant apparent noise due to varying terrain and fault and measurement geometry (topographic slope attitude, fault dip and slip obliquity). We show, with a case study on the Hoshab fault, Pakistan, that oblique slip can have a significant effect on the measured apparent slip. Individual planar geomorphic markers only constrain one component of the full 3D slip vector. We use the variation in apparent offset with marker geometry to constrain the slip vector in 3D. Combining multiple offset measurements along strike, we show that determining the slip vector is reduced to a simple linear formulation. We test our method using a terrestrial lidar data set from the ruptures on the Borrego fault from the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake (Baja California, Mexico). Combining 22 observations, we estimate a throw of 1.56 ± 0.02 m and a lateral slip of 1.9 ± 0.3 m. The vertical slip estimate agrees well with previous studies, but the lateral slip is significantly smaller. In regions of steep varied topography or with oblique slip, our method will give enhanced slip resolution while standard methods will give biased estimates.
The Tien Shan accommodates a significant portion of the India‐Eurasia N‐S convergence. In its northern part a zigzag pattern of mountain ranges bounds the western Ili Basin. The role of this basin in the overall shortening and the regional kinematics is not well understood. Geodetic data and instrumental seismicity are not sufficient to infer the role of individual faults and fault systems. We analyze GPS data and earthquake slip vectors and present the results of fault mapping based on remote sensing and field campaigns in the western Ili Basin. These observations indicate that E‐W thrust faults are active at the basin margins, and oblique and strike‐slip faults, both in the basin and in the Paleozoic rocks within the mountain ranges, have been active in the Late Quaternary. We propose a regional tectonic model in which the left‐lateral strike‐slip faults at the NW margin of the basin accommodate ~3‐mm/year NE‐SW shear. Smaller right‐lateral oblique faults transfer the motion in between the left‐lateral faults, and also take up shortening by rotations about vertical axes. We see the onset of internal deformation within the Ili Basin, although it has a strong basement. Our kinematic model is consistent with geodetic data, earthquake seismology, historical, and prehistorical surface faulting, and describes the first‐order features of active deformation that can be observed in the northern Tien Shan. Our study illustrates the importance of combining these different data sets to understand the regional tectonics.
S U M M A R YThe 2011 October 23 M W 7.1 Van earthquake in eastern Turkey caused ∼600 deaths and caused widespread damage and economic loss. The seismogenic rupture was restricted to 10-25 km in depth, but aseismic surface creep, coincident with outcrop fault exposures, was observed in the hours to months after the earthquake. We combine observations from radar interferometry, seismology, geomorphology and Quaternary dating to investigate the geological slip rate and seismotectonic context of the Van earthquake, and assess the implications for continuing seismic hazard in the region. Transient post-seismic slip on the upper Van fault started immediately following the earthquake, and decayed over a period of weeks; it may not fully account for our long-term surface slip-rate estimate of ≥0.5 mm yr −1 . Post-seismic slip on the Bostaniçi splay fault initiated several days to weeks after the main shock, and we infer that it may have followed the M W 5.9 aftershock on the 9th November. The Van earthquake shows that updip segmentation can be important in arresting seismic ruptures on dip-slip faults. Two large, shallow aftershocks show that the upper 10 km of crust can sustain significant earthquakes, and significant slip is observed to have reached the surface in the late Quaternary, so there may be a continuing seismic hazard from the upper Van fault and the associated splay. The wavelength of folding in the hanging wall of the Van fault is dominated by the structure in the upper 10 km of the crust, masking the effect of deeper seismogenic structures. Thus, models of subsurface faulting based solely on surface folding and faulting in regions of reverse faulting may underestimate the full depth extent of seismogenic structures in the region. In measuring the cumulative post-seismic offsets to anthropogenic structures, we show that Structure-from-Motion can be rapidly deployed to create snapshots of postseismic displacement. We also demonstrate the utility of declassified Corona mission imagery (1960s-1970s) for geomorphic mapping in areas where recent urbanization has concealed the geomorphic markers.
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