We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Bølling-Allerød (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition is caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient CO(2) forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.
Abstract. Emission inventories for major reactive tropospheric CI species (particulate CI, HC1, C1NO2, CH3CI, CHCI3, CH3CCI3, C2C14, C2HC13, CH2C12, and CHCIF2) were integrated across source types (terrestrial biogenic and oceanic emissions, sea-salt production and dechlorination, biomass burning, industrial emissions, fossil-fuel combustion, and incineration). Composite emissions were compared with known sinks to assess budget closure; relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources were differentiated. Model calculations suggest that conventional acid-displacement reactions involving Sov)+O3, S(Iv)+ H202, and H2SO4 and HNO3 scavenging account for minor fractions of sea-salt dechlorination globally. Other important chemical pathways involving sea-salt aerosol apparently produce most volatile chlorine in the troposphere. The combined emissions of CH3CI from known sources account for about half of the modeled sink, suggesting fluxes from known sources were unde:estimated, the OH sink was overestimated, or significant unidentified sources exist. Anthropogenic activities (primarily biomass burning) contribute about half the net CH3CI emitted from known sources. Anthropogenic emissions account for only about 10% of the modeled CHCl3 sink. Although poorly constrained, significant fractions of tropospheric CH2C12 (25%), C2HC13 (10%), and C2C14 (5%) are emitted from the surface ocean; the combined contributions of C2C14 and C2HC13 from all natural sources may be substantially higher than the estimated oceanic flux.
Abstract. This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e., maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossilfuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10 % uncertainty (95 % confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. This manuscript concludes that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion continue to increase with time and that while much is known about the overall characteristics of these emissions, much is still to be learned about the detailed characteristics of these emissions.
The global N2O flux from the ocean to the atmosphere is calculated based on more than 60,000 expedition measurements of the N2O anomaly in surface water. The expedition data are extrapolated globally and coupled to daily air‐sea gas transfer coefficients modeled at 2.8°×2.8° resolution to estimate a global ocean source of about 4 (1.2–6.8) Tg N yr−1. The wide range of uncertainty in the source estimate arises mainly from uncertainties in the air‐sea gas transfer coefficients and in the global extrapolation of the summertime‐biased surface N2O data set. The strongest source is predicted from the 40–60°S latitude band. Strong emissions also are predicted from the northern Pacific Ocean, the equatorial upwelling zone, and coastal upwelling zones occurring predominantly in the tropical northern hemisphere. High apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) at 100 m below the mixed layer is found to be correlated positively both to N2O production at depth and to the surface N2O anomaly. On the basis of these correlations, the expedition data are partitioned into two subsets associated with high and low AOU at depth. The zonally averaged monthly means in each subset are extrapolated to produce two latitude‐by‐month matrices in which monthly surface N2O is expressed as the deviation from the annual mean. Both matrices contain large uncertainties. The low‐AOU matrix, which mainly includes surface N2O data from the North Atlantic and the subtropical gyres, suggests many regions with positive summer deviations and negative winter deviations, consistent with a seasonal cycle predominantly driven by seasonal heating and cooling of the surface ocean. The high‐AOU subset, which includes the regions most important to the global N2O ocean source, suggests some regions with positive winter deviations and negative summer deviations, consistent with a seasonal cycle predominantly driven by wintertime mixing of surface water with N2O‐rich deep water. Coupled seasonal changes in gas transfer coefficients and surface N2O in these important source regions could strongly influence the global ocean source.
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