A new convective parameterization is introduced that can make use of a large variety of assumptions previously introduced in earlier formulations. The assumptions are chosen so that they will generate a large spread in the solution. We then show two methods in which ensemble and data assimilation techniques may be used to find the best value to feed back to the larger scale model. First, we can use simple statistical methods to find the most probable solution. Second, the ensemble probability density function can be considered as an appropriate “prior” (a'priori density) for Bayesian data assimilation. Using this “prior”, and information about observation likelihood, measured meteorological or climatological data can be directly assimilated into model fields. Given proper observations, the application of this technique is not restricted to convective parameterizations, but may be applied to other parameterizations as well.

The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), an operational regional analysis-forecast system among the suite of models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is distinctive in two primary aspects: its hourly assimilation cycle and its use of a hybrid isentropic-sigma vertical coordinate. The use of a quasi-isentropic coordinate for the analysis increment allows the influence of observations to be adaptively shaped by the potential temperature structure around the observation, while the hourly update cycle allows for a very current analysis and short-range forecast. Herein, the RUC analysis framework in the hybrid coordinate is described, and some considerations for high-frequency cycling are discussed. A 20-km 50-level hourly version of the RUC was implemented into operations at NCEP in April 2002. This followed an initial implementation with 60-km horizontal grid spacing and a 3-h cycle in 1994 and a major upgrade including 40-km horizontal grid spacing in 1998. Verification of forecasts from the latest 20-km version is presented using rawinsonde and surface observations. These verification statistics show that the hourly RUC assimilation cycle improves short-range forecasts (compared to longer-range forecasts valid at the same time) even down to the 1-h projection.

In operational air-quality forecasting, initial concentrations of chemical species are often obtained using previous-day forecasts with limited or no account for the observations. In this article we assess the role that assimilation of surface measurements of ozone and fine aerosols can play in improving the skill of air-quality forecasts. An assimilation experiment is performed using the

Forecasts from seven air quality models and ozone data collected over the eastern USA and southern Canada during July and August 2004 are used in creating a simple method to improve ensemble‐based forecasts of maximum daily 1‐hr and 8‐hr averaged ozone concentrations. The method minimizes least‐square error of ensemble forecasts by assigning weights for its members. The real‐time ozone (O3) forecasts from this ensemble of models are statistically evaluated against the ozone observations collected for the AIRNow database comprising more than 350 stations. Application of this method is shown to significantly improve overall statistics (e.g., bias, root mean square error, and index of agreement) of the weighted ensemble compared to the averaged ensemble or any individual ensemble member. If a sufficient number of observations is available, we recommend that weights be calculated daily; if not, a longer training phase will still provide a positive benefit.

Forecasts from seven air quality models and surface ozone data collected over the eastern USA and southern Canada during July and August 2004 provide a unique opportunity to assess benefits of ensemble-based ozone forecasting and devise methods to improve ozone forecasts. In this investigation, past forecasts from the ensemble of models and hourly surface ozone measurements at over 350 sites are used to issue deterministic 24-h forecasts using a method based on dynamic linear regression. Forecasts of hourly ozone concentrations as well as maximum daily 8-h and 1-h averaged concentrations are considered. It is shown that the forecasts issued with the application of this method have reduced bias and root mean square error and better overall performance scores than any of the ensemble members and the ensemble average. Performance of the method is similar to another method based on linear regression described previously by Pagowski et al., but unlike the latter, the current method does not require measurements from multiple monitors since it operates on individual time series. Improvement in the forecasts can be easily implemented and requires minimal computational cost.

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Global positioning system radio occultation (GPS/RO) measurements from the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Satelite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C (SAC-C) satellites are used to improve tropospheric profile retrievals derived from the Aqua platform high-spectral-resolution Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and broadband Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) measurements under clear-sky conditions. This paper compares temperature retrievals from combined AIRS, AMSU, and CHAMP/SAC-C measurements using different techniques: 1) a principal component statistical regression using coefficients established between real (and in a few cases calculated) measurements and radiosonde atmospheric profiles; and 2) a Bayesian estimation method applied to AIRS plus AMSU temperature retrievals and GPS/RO temperature profiles. The Bayesian estimation method was also applied to GPS/RO data and the AIRS Science Team operational level-2 (version 4.0) temperature products for comparison. In this study, including GPS/RO data in the tropopause region produces the largest improvement in AIRS-AMSU temperature retrievals-about 0.5 K between 100 and 300 hPa. GPS/RO data are found to provide valuable upper-tropospheric information that improves the profile retrievals from AIRS and AMSU.

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