[1] This paper describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD and presents the results and assesses the robustness of the modeling approach. The future climate series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by 15 global climate models (GCMs), to reflect a 0.9°C increase in global average surface air temperature, using a daily scaling method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. The majority of the modeling results indicate that there will be less runoff in southeast Australia in the future. However, there is considerable uncertainty, with the results ranging from a 17% decrease to a 7% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area for the 0.9°C global warming. The model assessments indicate that the modeling approach is generally robust and can be used to estimate the climate impact on runoff. The modeled mean annual runoff is generally within 10-20% of the observed runoff. The modeling results for an independent test period are only slightly poorer than the calibration period, indicating that a satisfactorily calibrated rainfall-runoff model can be used to estimate runoff for another climate period. The modeled impact on various runoff characteristics as estimated by two rainfall-runoff models investigated here differ by less than 10%, which is relatively small compared to the range of modeled runoff results using rainfall projections from different GCMs.
Abstract. Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electricity generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We describe changes to Tasmanian surface water availability from 1961-1990 to 2070-2099 using high-resolution simulations. Six fine-scale (∼10 km 2 ) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows.The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3 %) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22 %). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections.There is much greater variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. Marked decreases of up to 30 % are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. This is the first major Australian study to use highresolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.