The concept of the triad regulatory metasystem, which includes the neuroendocrine and immune regulation systems, is currently generally accepted. Changes occurring in each of the regulatory systems in response to the impact of technogenic chemical factors are also well known. This paper presents mathematical models of the immune and neuroendocrine system functioning, using the interaction between these systems in response to bacterial invasion as an example, and changes in their performance under exposure to chemical factors, taking into account the stage of functional disorders in a producing organ, using the performance of the bone marrow as an example.
In the paper there are described examples of the practical implementation of methodological approaches to the assessment of evolution of the health risk under exposure to a set of environmental factors. In the hygienic assessment of the dynamics of health risks for citizens, residing near a major airport (about 500 takeoffs and landings per day), there were revealed high risks of disorders of the cardiovascular and nervous system. The difference between the risks emerging under the exposure and without the impact of the factors peculiar to the airport was shown to increase with the age significantly, accounting for 5-year period, 1,2% of the exposure; over 20 years - 8-10%, and during the period of 50 years - more than 20%. There were obtained results describing the dynamics of the gain of risks for the population of all ages, the structure of risks in the different periods of the human life. Outputs of evolutionary modeling allowed to identify critical periods of exposure to factors for which the qualitative changes of levels of risk take place. This is important in justifying the order ofpriorities and urgency of sanitary hygienic measures for risk management. The development of methodological approaches lies in the plane of the refinement of mathematical models, improvement of methods for the assessment of the intensity and duration of exposure, taking into account features of the combined impacts of hazard factors of different nature.
On the basis of mathematical modeling of links in the system "environment – human health - control
and supervisory actions of Rospotrebnadzor", were obtained data on reliable dependences of mortality
and morbidity rates of the population in Russian regions on the frequency of violations of hygienic
standards for the content of harmful chemical and biological substances in the air, drinking water and
soils of urban and rural settlements. It is shown that in Russia in 2017 harmful influence of
environment factors is probabilistically associated with almost 64.9 thousand deaths and more than 5.1
million cases of diseases of children and adults. Rospotrebnadzor prevented about 48.1 thousand deaths
and more than 7 million cases of infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, digestion, tumors, skin and
subcutaneous tissue diseases, etc., associated mainly with unsatisfactory quality of drinking water and
atmospheric air. Over 43.27 million days of economically inactivity have been prevented.
The transition to risk-based surveillance increases targeting of control measures and allows to minimize
the risks of environmental pollution, to prevent the violation of hygienic requirements of standards by
business entities and, accordingly, to substantially reduce the medical and demographic losses associated
with the factors of the country's habitat.
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