The clinical efficacy of amlodipine in improving hemodynamic variables and reducing cardiovascular events in isolated systolic hypertension could be explained by its beneficial effect on vascular calcification. Amlodipine's lack of effect on pulse wave velocity and collagen deposition, however, suggests that it may reduce pulse pressure by means other than improving arterial stiffness.
Thanks to Jagjit Chadha for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank Patricia Sanchez Juanino for compiling the database. Unless otherwise stated, the source of all data reported in the figures and tables is the NiGEM database and forecast baseline. The UK forecast analysis was completed on 17 April 2020, more recent data are incorporated in the text.
for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 25 January 2021, more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël
We are grateful to Jagjit Chadha and Barry Naisbitt for helpful comments and suggestions, and to Patricia Sanchez Juanino for compiling the database. Unless otherwise stated, the source of all data reported in the figures and tables is the NiGEM database and forecast baseline. The UK forecast analysis was completed on 23 October 2020, more recent data are incorporated in the text. Section 1. A long and rocky road to recovery
At the beginning of 2010, the fiscal situation of Greece was unsustainable, and an ambitious but costly adjustment plan had to be put in place under a consortium of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank. It took three consecutive adjustment programmes, including debt-relief through private sector involvement, to restore confidence in the economy and achieve a budget surplus. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of the Greek Crisis starting from 2010. We build a series of counterfactuals using the National Institute General Econometric Model (NIGEM) to analyse why the cost of the adjustment in terms of GDP loss and increase in debt-to-GDP ratio turned out to be much worse than expected. In doing so, we analyse three scenarios: (i) one in which we simulate a much more conservative cut in public investment by the Greek central government; (ii) a second scenario of a lower risk-premium, signalling, e.g., lower political and re-denomination risks, had the European Central Bank guaranteed its lending of last resort role earlier than 2012; (iii) finally, a similar financial envelope as the one adopted during the first Greek adjustment programme but over a longer period, moving beyond the standard IMF three-year duration programmes. We find that the mix of expenditure cuts and loss of confidence among households and firms explain a large part of the unanticipated costs of the adjustment in the Greek crisis.
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