Après trois décennies de croissance rapide, l'économie chinoise ralentit. Par ailleurs, les inquiétudes liées à la soutenabilité de son modèle de croissance sont de plus en plus vives, appelant à un rééquilibrage urgent de l?économie.Ce papier évalue dans quelle mesure le processus de rééquilibrage pourrait affecter la croissance potentielle chinoise dans les quinze prochaines années. Après un examen des causes de la forte croissance et des déséquilibres passés (et notamment le rôle des distorsions sur les prix des facteurs), ainsi que l'augmentation récente des vulnérabilités (surinvestissement, hausse excessive du crédit, bulle immobilière), nous adoptons une approche par la fonction de production afin d'obtenir des estimations de croissance potentielle. Toutefois, nous nous différencions de la littérature par deux aspects méthodologiques spécifiques. Tout d'abord, nous corrigeons le stock de capital du surinvestissement en intégrant de l'information sur le cycle de crédit. Ensuite, nous distinguons les gains de productivité dus à la réallocation sectorielle des facteurs de production des gains de productivité intra-sectoriels, permettant ainsi une meilleure évaluation de la transition attendue de l'économie de l'industrie vers les services.Nos résultats indiquent que la croissance chinoise serait actuellement légèrement supérieure à son potentiel, avec un output gap positif, remettant ainsi en cause l'opportunité de mesures supplémentaires de soutien à l'activité.En outre, dans notre scénario le potentiel de croissance baisserait plus rapidement que prévu par le Consensus, à environ 5% d'ici 2020.
The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem. We thank Anne Epaulard, Stéphane Colliac, Romain Rancière and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.
participants of internal Banque de France seminars, the 9th International Conference on the Chinese Economy organized by CERDI-IDREC, EconomiX seminar, the "China after 35 Years of Economic Transition" conference hosted by London Metropolitan University, the 18th ICMAIF conference, the 16th INFER annual conference, the 63rd AFSE annual meeting, the 12th ESCB Emerging Markets Workshop, the ECB "China-Transitioning Towards a Sustainable Economy" workshop, and the 6th Joint BoC-ECB Conference hosted by the Bank of Canada, for helpful discussions and valuable comments on a previous version of this paper. We also thank Peter Richardson and Joel Crane for kindly allowing us to reproduce results from Morgan Stanley Economic and Commodity Research, as well as Lauren Diaz and Elodie Marnier for their help with the database construction. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Banque de France, the Eurosystem, the International Monetary Fund or its Executive Board. Any errors or omissions remain the sole responsibility of the authors.
China's rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. While concerns about the sustainability of China's growth model are rising, we assess to what extent rebalancing through a hard landing in China would impact other countries. After reviewing the main arguments pointing to a hard landing scenario—historical rebalancing precedents, overinvestment, unsustainable debt trends and real estate bubble—we use a global VAR methodology adapted to conditional forecasting to simulate the impact of a Chinese hard landing. We model metal and oil markets separately to account for their different end‐use patterns and consumption intensity in China. According to our estimates, emerging economies would be hardest hit—with a 7.5% cumulated growth loss after 5 years—in particular in Emerging Asia and in commodity‐exporting regions such as Latin America. The “growth gap” between emerging and advanced economies would be considerably reduced, leading to partial recoupling. In the light of these results, both the “commodity supercycle” and sustained convergence observed in emerging economies over the past decade could be to a large extent attributed to the high and unbalanced growth pattern in China.
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