To carry out their various missions—collecting revenue, facilitating trade and ensuring security— many customs administrations have established a risk management unit. In developing countries, however, because of the lack of dedicated human and material resources, intelligence and risk analysis remain insufficiently developed. In view of the lack of resources, this article proposes a simple methodology aiming at detecting risky import operations. The mirror analysis first helps to identify and target products or sectors with the greatest risk. Based on the examination of customs declarations patterns (data mining), it is then possible to identify and target higher risk economic operators (importers and customs brokers). When implemented in Madagascar, this method has helped to reveal probable fraud cases in the context of current customs reforms.
Modern customs administrations aim to both facilitate legal trade and combat fraud. To meet this dual objective, many customs administrations in developing countries must give risk management a highly prominent role. In this context of modernization, this article first provides stylized facts on the performance of the customs controls carried out at the Gabon border. Then, we compare Gabon's granular import customs data with international trade statistics. Based on this comparison, we identify undetected fraud and develop a methodology to target ex post audits. Finally, we define indicators to monitor the performance of customs valuation controls. To improve their performance, we show that customs in developing countries should rely more on data analytics, notably via the implementation of simple statistical tools and the diversification of their sources of information..
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
This paper presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar’s main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our approach, but also triggered a novel manifestation of manipulation that rejuvenated systemic corruption. Tax revenue losses associated with the corruption scheme are approximately 3% of total taxes collected and are highly concentrated among a select few inspectors and brokers.
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