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Methods of risk assessment for alien species, especially for nonagricultural systems, are largely qualitative. Using a generalizable risk assessment approach and statistical models of fish introductions into the Great Lakes, North America, we developed a quantitative approach to target prevention efforts on species most likely to cause damage. Models correctly categorized established, quickly spreading, and nuisance fishes with 87 to 94% accuracy. We then identified fishes that pose a high risk to the Great Lakes if introduced from unintentional (ballast water) or intentional pathways (sport, pet, bait, and aquaculture industries).

Spine and helmet production in zooplankton are thought to provide protection from invertebrate rather than vertebrate predators. We examined selectivity for Daphnia lumholtzi, a species that exhibits extreme cyclomorphosis with a large helmet and long tail spine (total length can exceed 5 mm), by juvenile bluegill (15-80 mm) in the laboratory and field. Bluegill consumed more D. pulex than D. lumholtzi when the species were presented alone. When the daphnids were offered together in equal numbers, bluegill selected against D. lumholtzi. Bluegill foraging behavior helped explain the observed nonrandom feeding. Bluegill capture efficiency foraging on D. pulex was high (85-100%) and handling times were low (usually too short to detect), whereas efficiencies were lower (40-96%) and handling times were longer (1-3 s) when foraging on D. lumholtzi, particularly for fish <50 mm. As they gained experience, bluegill <50 mm that oriented towards D. lumholtzi rejected them more often than striking. In addition, more D. lumholtzi were rejected and expelled than were D. pulex. From these experiments, we conclude that larger bluegill (>50 mm) are able to forage more successfully on D. lumholtzi than smaller fish. Selectivity by bluegill collected from a reservoir infested with D. lumholtzi verified our laboratory conclusions. Smaller bluegill selected against D. lumholtzi, whereas it was a preferred diet item for bluegill >50 mm. These results show that the morphology of D. lumholtzi interferes with predation by small planktivorous fish, posing foraging constraints for these fish more similar to those of piscivores, where handling time is important, than to those of planktivores, where prey density is of primary importance.

We examined the response of benthic invertebrates to hypoxia and predation risk in bioassay and behavioral experiments. In the bioassay, four invertebrate species differed widely in their tolerance of hypoxia. The mayfly, Callibaetis montanus, and the beetle larva, Hydaticus modestus, exhibited a low tolerance of hypoxia, the amphipod, Gammarus lacustris, was intermediate in its response and the caddisfly, Hesperophylax occidentalis, showed high tolerance of hypoxia. In the behavioral experiments, we observed the response of these benthic invertebrates, which differ in locomotor abilities, to vertical oxygen and temperature gradients similar to those in an ice-covered pond. With adequate oxygen, invertebrates typically remained on the bottom substrate. As benthic oxygen declined in the absence of fish, all taxa moved above the benthic refuge to areas with higher oxygen concentrations. In the presence of fish mayflies increased activity whereas all other taxa decreased activity in response to hypoxia. Mayflies and amphipods remained in the benthic refuge longer and endured lower oxygen concentrations whereas the vertical distribution of caddisflies and beetle larvae was not influenced by the presence of fish. As benthic oxygen declined in the presence of fish, all but the beetle larva reduced activity over all oxygen concentrations compared to when fish were absent. As benthic oxygen continued to decline, mayflies and amphipods moved above the benthic refuge and were preyed upon by fish. Thus, highly mobile taxa unable to tolerate hypoxia (mayflies and amphipods) responded behaviorally to declining oxygen concentrations by migrating upward in the water column. Taxa that were less mobile (beetle larvae) or hypoxia-tolerant (caddisflies) showed less of a response. Taxa most vulnerable to fish predation (mayflies and amphipods) showed a stronger behavioral response to predator presence than those less vulnerable (caddisflies and beetle larvae). Because invertebrates differ in their ability to withstand hypoxia, episodes of winter hypoxia could have long-lasting effects on benthic invertebrate communities either by direct mortality or selective predation on less tolerant taxa.

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