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The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), initiated in 1989 under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme, undertook the systematic validation, diagnosis, and intercomparison of the performance of atmospheric general circulation models. For this purpose all models were required to simulate the evolution of the climate during the decade 1979-88, subject to the observed monthly average temperature and sea ice and a common prescribed atmospheric C02 concentration and solar constant. By 1995, 31 modeling groups, representing virtually the entire international atmospheric modeling community, had contributed the required standard output of the monthly means of selected statistics. These data have been analyzed by the participating modeling groups, by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and by the more than two dozen AMIP diagnostic subprojects that have been established to examine specific aspects of the models' performance. Here the analysis and validation of the AMIP results as a whole are summarized in order to document the overall performance of atmospheric general circulation-climate models as of the early 1990s. The infrastructure and plans for continuation of the AMIP project are also reported on.Although there are apparent model outliers in each simulated variable examined, validation of the AMIP models' ensemble mean shows that the average large-scale seasonal distributions of pressure, temperature, and circulation are reasonably close to what are believed to be the best observational estimates available. The large-scale structure of the ensemble mean precipitation and ocean surface heat flux also resemble the observed estimates but show particularly large intermodel differences in low latitudes. The total cloudiness, on the other hand, is rather poorly simulated, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The models' simulation of the seasonal cycle (as represented by the amplitude and phase of the first annual harmonic of sea level pressure) closely resembles the observed variation in almost all regions. The ensemble's simulation of the interannual variability of sea level pressure in the tropical Pacific is reasonably close to that observed (except for its underestimate of the amplitude of major El Ninos), while the interannual variability is less well simulated in midlatitudes. When analyzed in terms of the variability of the evolution of their combined spacetime patterns in comparison to observations, the AMIP models are seen to exhibit a wide range of accuracy, with no single model performing best in all respects considered.Analysis of the subset of the original AMIP models for which revised versions have subsequently been used to revisit the experiment shows a substantial reduction of the models' systematic errors in simulating cloudiness but only a slight reduction of the mean seasonal errors of most other variables. In order to understand better the nature of these errors and to accelerate the rate of model improvement, an expanded and continuing project (...

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We review the major impact-associated mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary. We then discuss how the proposed extinction mechanisms may relate to the environmental consequences of asteroid and comet impacts in general. Our chief goal is to provide relatively simple prescriptions for evaluating the importance of impacting objects over a range of energies and compositions, but we also stress that there are many uncertainties. We conclude that impacts with energies less than about 10 Mt are a negligible hazard. For impacts with energies above 10 Mt and below about 10 4 Mt (i.e., impact frequencies less than one in 6 x 10 4 years, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 rn and 650 m, respectively), blast damage, earthquakes, and fires should be important on a scale of 104 or 105 km 2, which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters of recent history. However, tsunami excited by marine impacts could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plain over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 104-105 Mt (intervals up to 3 x l0 s years, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters up to 850 rn and 1.4 km, respectively) water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the global scale. In our nominal model, such an impact does not inject enough submicrometer dust into the stratosphere to produce major adverse effects, but if a higher fraction of pulverized rock than we think likely reaches the stratosphere, stratospheric dust (causing global cooling) would also be important in this energy range. Thus l0 s Mt is a lower limit where damage might occur beyond the experience of human history. The energy range from l0 s to 106 Mt (intervals up to 2 x 106 years, corresponding to comets and asteroids up to 1.8 and 3 km diameter) is transitional between regional and global effects. Stratospheric dust, sulfates released from within impacting asteroids, and soot from extensive wildfires sparked by thermal radiation from the impact can produce climatologically significant global optical depths of the order of 10. Moreover, the ejecta plumes of these impacts may produce enough NO from shock-heated air to destroy the ozone shield. Between 10 6 and 10 7 Mt (intervals up to 1.5 x 107 years, corresponding to comets and asteroids up to 4 and 6.5 km diameter), dust and sulfate levels would be high enough to reduce light levels below those necessary for photosynthesis. Ballistic ejecta reentering the atmosphere as shooting stars would set fires over regions exceeding 107 km 2, and the resulting smoke would reduce light levels even further. At energies above 107 Mt, blast and earthquake damage reach the regional scale (106 km2). Tsunami cresting to 100 rn and flooding 20 km inland could sweep the coastal zones of one of the world's ocean basins. Fires would be set globally. Light levels may drop so low from the smoke, dust, and sulfate as to make vision impossible. At energies approaching 10 9 Mt (>108 years) t...