We propose MC+, a fast, continuous, nearly unbiased and accurate method of penalized variable selection in high-dimensional linear regression. The LASSO is fast and continuous, but biased. The bias of the LASSO may prevent consistent variable selection. Subset selection is unbiased but computationally costly. The MC+ has two elements: a minimax concave penalty (MCP) and a penalized linear unbiased selection (PLUS) algorithm. The MCP provides the convexity of the penalized loss in sparse regions to the greatest extent given certain thresholds for variable selection and unbiasedness. The PLUS computes multiple exact local minimizers of a possibly nonconvex penalized loss function in a certain main branch of the graph of critical points of the penalized loss. Its output is a continuous piecewise linear path encompassing from the origin for infinite penalty to a least squares solution for zero penalty. We prove that at a universal penalty level, the MC+ has high probability of matching the signs of the unknowns, and thus correct selection, without assuming the strong irrepresentable condition required by the LASSO. This selection consistency applies to the case of $p\gg n$, and is proved to hold for exactly the MC+ solution among possibly many local minimizers. We prove that the MC+ attains certain minimax convergence rates in probability for the estimation of regression coefficients in $\ell_r$ balls. We use the SURE method to derive degrees of freedom and $C_p$-type risk estimates for general penalized LSE, including the LASSO and MC+ estimators, and prove their unbiasedness. Based on the estimated degrees of freedom, we propose an estimator of the noise level for proper choice of the penalty level.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS729 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Summary.The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low dimensional parameters with high dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of several of them in a linear regression model, although our ideas are applicable in a much broader context. The theoretical results that are presented provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators along with a consistent estimator for their finite dimensional covariance matrices. These sufficient conditions allow the number of variables to exceed the sample size and the presence of many small non-zero coefficients. Our methods and theory apply to interval estimation of a preconceived regression coefficient or contrast as well as simultaneous interval estimation of many regression coefficients. Moreover, the method proposed turns the regression data into an approximate Gaussian sequence of point estimators of individual regression coefficients, which can be used to select variables after proper thresholding. The simulation results that are presented demonstrate the accuracy of the coverage probability of the confidence intervals proposed as well as other desirable properties, strongly supporting the theoretical results.

We propose a general maximum likelihood empirical Bayes (GMLEB) method for the estimation of a mean vector based on observations with i.i.d. normal errors. We prove that under mild moment conditions on the unknown means, the average mean squared error (MSE) of the GMLEB is within an infinitesimal fraction of the minimum average MSE among all separable estimators which use a single deterministic estimating function on individual observations, provided that the risk is of greater order than $(\log n)^5/n$. We also prove that the GMLEB is uniformly approximately minimax in regular and weak $\ell_p$ balls when the order of the length-normalized norm of the unknown means is between $(\log n)^{\kappa_1}/n^{1/(p\wedge2)}$ and $n/(\log n)^{\kappa_2}$. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the GMLEB outperforms the James--Stein and several state-of-the-art threshold estimators in a wide range of settings without much down side.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS638 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Concave regularization methods provide natural procedures for sparse recovery. However, they are difficult to analyze in the high dimensional setting. Only recently a few sparse recovery results have been established for some specific local solutions obtained via specialized numerical procedures. Still, the fundamental relationship between these solutions such as whether they are identical or their relationship to the global minimizer of the underlying nonconvex formulation is unknown. The current paper fills this conceptual gap by presenting a general theoretical framework showing that under appropriate conditions, the global solution of nonconvex regularization leads to desirable recovery performance; moreover, under suitable conditions, the global solution corresponds to the unique sparse local solution, which can be obtained via different numerical procedures. Under this unified framework, we present an overview of existing results and discuss their connections. The unified view of this work leads to a more satisfactory treatment of concave high dimensional sparse estimation procedures, and serves as guideline for developing further numerical procedures for concave regularization.

Many problems can be formulated as recovering a low-rank tensor. Although an increasingly common task, tensor recovery remains a challenging problem because of the delicacy associated with the decomposition of higher order tensors. To overcome these difficulties, existing approaches often proceed by unfolding tensors into matrices and then apply techniques for matrix completion. We show here that such matricization fails to exploit the tensor structure and may lead to suboptimal procedure. More specifically, we investigate a convex optimization approach to tensor completion by directly minimizing a tensor nuclear norm and prove that this leads to an improved sample size requirement. To establish our results, we develop a series of algebraic and probabilistic techniques such as characterization of subdifferetial for tensor nuclear norm and concentration inequalities for tensor martingales, which may be of independent interests and could be useful in other tensor related problems.