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We consider the problem of estimating the best subgroup and testing for treatment effect in a clinical trial. We define the best subgroup as the subgroup that maximizes a utility function that reflects the trade-off between the subgroup size and the treatment effect. For moderate effect sizes and sample sizes, simpler methods for subgroup estimation worked better than more complex treebased regression approaches. We propose a three-stage design with a weighted inverse normal combination test to test the hypothesis of no treatment effect across the three stages.

Background/Objective: To identify and characterize subgroups of adolescents with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) who share patterns in their continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data as "dysglycemia phenotypes."Methods: Data were analyzed from the Flexible Lifestyles Empowering Change randomized trial. Adolescents with T1D (13-16 years, duration >1 year) and HbA1c 8% to 13% (64-119 mmol/mol) wore blinded CGM at baseline for 7 days. Participants were clustered based on eight CGM metrics measuring hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and glycemic variability. Clusters were characterized by their baseline features and 18 months changes in HbA1c using adjusted mixed effects models. For comparison, participants were stratified by baseline HbA1c (≤/>9.0% [75 mmol/mol]). Results:The study sample included 234 adolescents (49.8% female, baseline age 14.8 ± 1.1 years, baseline T1D duration 6.4 ± 3.7 years, baseline HbA1c 9.6% ± 1.2%, [81 ± 13 mmol/mol]). Three Dysglycemia Clusters were identified with significant differences across all CGM metrics (P < .001). Dysglycemia Cluster 3 (n = 40, 17.1%) showed severe hypoglycemia and glycemic variability with moderate hyperglycemia and had a lower baseline HbA1c than Clusters 1 and 2 (P < .001). This cluster showed increases in HbA1c over 18 months (p-for-interaction = 0.006). No other baseline characteristics were associated with Dysglycemia Clusters. High HbA1c was associated with lower pump use, greater insulin doses, more frequent blood glucose

Context Subclinical and clinical complications emerge early in type 1 diabetes (T1D) and may be associated with obesity and hyperglycemia. Objective Test how longitudinal “weight-glycemia” phenotypes increase susceptibility to different patterns of early/subclinical complications among youth with T1D. Design SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth observational study. Setting Population-based cohort. Participants Youth with T1D (n = 570) diagnosed 2002 to 2006 or 2008. Main Outcome Measures Participants were clustered based on longitudinal body mass index z score and HbA1c from a baseline visit and 5+ year follow-up visit (mean diabetes duration: 1.4 ± 0.4 years and 8.2 ± 1.9 years, respectively). Logistic regression modeling tested cluster associations with seven early/subclinical diabetes complications at follow-up, adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, age, and duration. Results Four longitudinal weight-glycemia clusters were identified: The Referent Cluster (n = 195, 34.3%), the Hyperglycemia Only Cluster (n = 53, 9.3%), the Elevated Weight Only Cluster (n = 206, 36.1%), and the Elevated Weight With Increasing Hyperglycemia (EWH) Cluster (n = 115, 20.2%). Compared with the Referent Cluster, the Hyperglycemia Only Cluster had elevated odds of dyslipidemia [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.22, 95% CI: 1.15 to 4.29], retinopathy (aOR 9.98, 95% CI: 2.49 to 40.0), and diabetic kidney disease (DKD) (aOR 4.16, 95% CI: 1.37 to 12.62). The EWH Cluster had elevated odds of hypertension (aOR 2.18, 95% CI: 1.19 to 4.00), dyslipidemia (aOR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.41 to 3.95), arterial stiffness (aOR 2.46, 95% CI: 1.09 to 5.53), retinopathy (aOR 5.11, 95% CI: 1.34 to 19.46), and DKD (aOR 3.43, 95% CI: 1.29 to 9.11). Conclusions Weight-glycemia phenotypes show different patterns of complications, particularly markers of subclinical macrovascular disease, even in the first decade of T1D.

IntroductionIndividuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) present with diverse body weight status and degrees of glycemic control, which may warrant different treatment approaches. We sought to identify subgroups sharing phenotypes based on both weight and glycemia and compare characteristics across subgroups.Research design and methodsParticipants with T1D in the SEARCH study cohort (n=1817, 6.0–30.4 years) were seen at a follow-up visit >5 years after diagnosis. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering was used to group participants based on five measures summarizing the joint distribution of body mass index z-score (BMIz) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) which were estimated by reinforcement learning tree predictions from 28 covariates. Interpretation of cluster weight status and glycemic control was based on mean BMIz and HbA1c, respectively.ResultsThe sample was 49.5% female and 55.5% non-Hispanic white (NHW); mean±SD age=17.6±4.5 years, T1D duration=7.8±1.9 years, BMIz=0.61±0.94, and HbA1c=76±21 mmol/mol (9.1±1.9)%. Six weight-glycemia clusters were identified, including four normal weight, one overweight, and one subgroup with obesity. No cluster had a mean HbA1c <58 mmol/mol (7.5%). Cluster 1 (34.0%) was normal weight with the lowest HbA1c and comprised 85% NHW participants with the highest socioeconomic position, insulin pump use, dietary quality, and physical activity. Subgroups with very poor glycemic control (ie, ≥108 mmol/mol (≥12.0%); cluster 4, 4.4%, and cluster 5, 7.5%) and obesity (cluster 6, 15.4%) had a lower proportion of NHW youth, lower socioeconomic position, and reported decreased pump use and poorer health behaviors (overall p<0.01). The overweight subgroup with very poor glycemic control (cluster 5) showed the highest lipids and blood pressure (p<0.01).ConclusionsThere are distinct subgroups of youth and young adults with T1D that share weight-glycemia phenotypes. Subgroups may benefit from tailored interventions addressing differences in clinical care, health behaviors, and underlying health inequity.