Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propagation on different spatial and temporal scales. This is basically a landscape concept linking territorial dynamics (related to ecosystem evolution and settlement patterns) with a fire regime (ignition causes; spread patterns; fire frequency, severity, extent and seasonality). The aim of this article is to identify and characterize these land-based fire scenarios in Spain on a national and regional scale, using a GIS-based methodology to perform a spatial analysis of the area attributes of homogenous fire spread patterns. To do this, the main variables considered are: land use/land cover, fuel load and recent fire history. The final objective is to reduce territorial vulnerability to forest wildfires and facilitate the adaptation of fire policies and land management systems to current challenges of preparedness and uncertainty management.
Post-fire forest resilience must be quantified in a long-term perspective considering changes in land-use related to fire dynamics. Historical land-use changes leading to increased wildfire severity may produce no analogue regime shifts including a loss in post-fire growth recovery. Here we reconstruct the historical fire dynamics by combining paleoecological proxies, historical fire records and tree-ring width data of relict Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii forests in the Sierra de Gredos (central Spain). A high incidence of historical fires was recorded in the 1890s, coinciding with a peak in charcoal accumulation rates and a sharp decrease in pollen of P. nigra/Pinus sylvestris with a rapid increase of pollen of more flammable Pinus pinaster and shrubs. The shift observed in pollen assemblages, coupled with a peak in charcoal influx, support the occurrence of high-severity fires during the 1890s, when abrupt growth suppressions were observed. Trees took 2 years to recover to their pre-fire growth rates. Lasting growth-recovery periods or no growth suppression were observed in the 1920s and 1980s, when fire frequency was also high but the study sites were fragmented or protected. We documented an abrupt regime shift in the fire record during the 1890s affecting pine forests, which rapidly recovered pre-fire growth rates.
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