The ability to predict microbial community dynamics lags behind the quantity of data available in these systems. Most predictive models use only environmental parameters, although a long history of ecological literature suggests that community complexity should also be an informative parameter. Thus, we hypothesize that incorporating information about a community’s complexity might improve predictive power in microbial models. Here, we present a new metric, called community ‘cohesion,’ that quantifies the degree of connectivity of a microbial community. We analyze six long-term (10+ years) microbial data sets using the cohesion metrics and validate our approach using data sets where absolute abundances of taxa are available. As a case study of our metrics’ utility, we show that community cohesion is a strong predictor of Bray–Curtis dissimilarity (R2=0.47) between phytoplankton communities in Lake Mendota, WI, USA. Our cohesion metrics outperform a model built using all available environmental data collected during a long-term sampling program. The result that cohesion corresponds strongly to Bray–Curtis dissimilarity is consistent across the six long-term time series, including five phytoplankton data sets and one bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequencing data set. We explain here the calculation of our cohesion metrics and their potential uses in microbial ecology.
The influence of biotic interactions on microbial community assembly is intensely debated. We hypothesized that keystone taxa, which influence community assembly through strong biotic interactions, are important for regulating microbial community composition. While highly connected microbes have been identified, evidence that these taxa act as keystones is lacking, because keystone status requires influence on whole-community dynamics. We address this gap, showing that small subsets of highly connected keystone taxa (generally 1%-5% of richness) can be optimal predictors of whole-community compositional change. In three long-term data sets, greater connectivity due to the presence of keystone taxa corresponded to lower compositional turnover. We further hypothesized that the influence of keystone taxa would be diminished when environmental disturbance was a strong driver of compositional change. We used two case studies of reference and disturbed communities to investigate how biotic and abiotic forces interact to shape community composition. Most of the same taxa were present in both the reference and disturbed communities, but keystone taxa had much greater explanatory power in the reference communities. Our results suggest that greater biotic connectivity arising from the presence of keystone taxa is stabilizing to community composition, and that keystone taxa can be good indicators of pending community shifts.
"Enemy release" occurs when invading species suffer from interactions with pathogens, parasites, herbivores, or predators to a lesser degree than native species due to a lack of shared evolutionary history. Here we provide strong support for the hypothesis that variable thermal sensitivities between a consumer and its resources can generate temperature-dependent enemy release using both a mathematical model and a field experiment. We identify three common scenarios where changes in temperature should alter enemy release based on asymmetric responses among enemies and their resources to changes in temperature: (1) the vital rates of a shared enemy are more sensitive to changes in temperature than its resources, (2) the enemy's thermal maximum for consumption is higher than the resources' maxima for growth, and (3) the invading resource has a higher thermal maximum for growth than its native competitor. Mathematical representations indicated that warming is capable of altering enemy release in each of these three scenarios. We also tested our hypothesis using a mesocosm warming experiment in a system that exhibits variable thermal sensitivities between a predator and its native and nonnative prey. We conducted a six-week experiment manipulating the presence of Lepomis sunfish (present, absent) and water temperature (ambient, heated) using the nonnative crustacean zooplankter, Daphnia lumholtzi, whose morphological defenses reduce predation from juvenile sunfish relative to native Daphnia pulex. Our results indicate that D. lumholtzi benefited to a greater extent from the presence of Lepomis predators as temperatures increase. Taken together, our model and experiment indicate that changes in environmental temperature may directly influence the success of nonnative species and may assist with forecasting the community consequences of biological invasions in a warming world.
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