Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015 and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542–753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies.

Background: 2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other international institutions to reduce malaria incidence and mortality. A review of progress indicates that malaria programme financing and coverage have been transformed since the beginning of the millennium, and have contributed to substantial reductions in the burden of disease. Findings: Investments in malaria programmes increased by more than 2.5 times between 2005 and 2014 from US$ 960 million to US$ 2.5 billion, allowing an expansion in malaria prevention, diagnostic testing and treatment programmes. In 2015 more than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa slept under insecticide-treated mosquito nets, compared to just 2 % in 2000. Increased availability of rapid diagnostic tests and antimalarial medicines has allowed many more people to access timely and appropriate treatment. Malaria incidence rates have decreased by 37 % globally and mortality rates by 60 % since 2000. It is estimated that 70 % of the reductions in numbers of cases in sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to malaria interventions.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control are widespread but coverage remains inadequate. We developed a Bayesian model using data from 102 national surveys, triangulated against delivery data and distribution reports, to generate year-by-year estimates of four ITN coverage indicators. We explored the impact of two potential 'inefficiencies': uneven net distribution among households and rapid rates of net loss from households. We estimated that, in 2013, 21% (17%–26%) of ITNs were over-allocated and this has worsened over time as overall net provision has increased. We estimated that rates of ITN loss from households are more rapid than previously thought, with 50% lost after 23 (20–28) months. We predict that the current estimate of 920 million additional ITNs required to achieve universal coverage would in reality yield a lower level of coverage (77% population access). By improving efficiency, however, the 920 million ITNs could yield population access as high as 95%.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09672.001

SummaryBackgroundArtemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the most effective treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection. A commonly used indicator for monitoring and assessing progress in coverage of malaria treatment is the proportion of children younger than 5 years with reported fever in the previous 14 days who have received an ACT. We propose an improved indicator that incorporates parasite infection status (as assessed by a rapid diagnostic test [RDT]), which is available in recent household surveys. In this study we estimated the annual proportion of children younger than 5 years with fever and a positive RDT in Africa who received an ACT in 2003–15.MethodsOur modelling study used cross-sectional data on treatment for fever and RDT status for children younger than 5 years compiled from all nationally available representative household surveys (the Malaria Indicator Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys) across sub-Saharan Africa between 2003 and 2015. Estimates for the proportion of children younger than 5 years with a fever within the previous 14 days and P falciparum infection assessed by RDT who received an ACT were incorporated in a generalised additive mixed model, including data on ACT distributions, to estimate coverage across all countries and time periods. We did random effects meta-analyses to examine individual, household, and community effects associated with ACT coverage.FindingsWe obtained data on 201 704 children younger than 5 years from 103 surveys (22 MIS, 61 DHS, and 20 MICS) across 33 countries. RDT results were available for 40 of these surveys including 40 261 (20%) children, and we predicted RDT status for the remaining 161 443 (80%) children. Our results showed that ACT coverage in children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection increased across sub-Saharan Africa in 2003–15, but even in 2015, only 19.7% (95% CI 15.6–24.8) of children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection received an ACT. In meta-analyses, children younger than 5 years were more likely to receive an ACT for fever and P falciparum infection if they lived in an urban area (vs rural area; odds ratio [OR] 1.18, 95% CI 1.06–1.31), had household wealth above the national median (vs wealth below the median; OR 1.26, 1.16–1.39), had a caregiver with any education (vs no education; OR 1.31, 1.22–1.41), had a household insecticide-treated net (ITN; vs no ITN; OR 1.21, 1.13–1.29), were older than 2 years (vs ≤2 years; OR 1.09, 1.01–1.17), or lived in an area with a higher mean P falciparum prevalence in children aged 2–10 years (OR 1.12, 1.02–1.23). In the subgroup of children for whom treatment was sought, those who sought treatment in the public sector were more likely to receive an ACT (vs the private sector; OR 3.18, 2.67–3.78).InterpretationDespite progress during the 2003–15 malaria programme, ACT treatment for children with malaria remains unacceptably low. More work is needed at the country level to...

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness, and facial cleanliness is associated with reduced odds of trachomatous inflammation and Chlamydia trachomatis infection, but there is little evidence of how to drive this behavior change at scale. We report the results of a program integrating face washing into a school-based handwashing promotion program in Turkana County, Kenya. Children aged 5-15 years participated in an intervention delivered to schools in two phases, along with a third phase receiving the intervention after the evaluation, which served as a control. The primary outcome was the number of face washing events that took place when handwashing occurred, which was measured by a 3-hour structured observation at all 67 schools, and a total of 3,871 handwashing events were observed. Differences in observed in face washing behavior between each phase and the control schools were calculated using logbinomial regression with clustering at the school level, whereas survey responses on knowledge of trachoma transmission and prevention were compared using χ 2 tests adjusted for clustering at the school level. Face washing during handwashing events was higher in schools after 12 months (59.3%) and 20 months (44.2%) than in control schools (18.7%, P < 0.001). Trachoma knowledge was higher in schools evaluated after 12 months (80%) and 20 months (70%) than in control schools (42%, P < 0.001), and knowledge of some of key preventive behaviors was higher in intervention schools. Integrating face washing messages into school-based handwashing promotion programs increased face washing, which may help to prevent trachoma when combined with other interventions.