Abstract. Natural establishment of forests in the Brazilian Pampa biome should occur due to soil, hydrology and climate conditions, although no significant forest expansion over grassland has been noticed, precluded mainly by human interference and lack of environmental management. In this study, we used niche-modeling distribution of the tree species Schinus molle L. based on climatic variables to access the vegetation dynamics of the Brazilian Pampa and to develop strategies that assure the conservation of this biome, concerning both grassland and forest formations. Here we show that a large area of the Brazilian Pampa is suitable for expansion of S. molle populations, supporting the forest expansion over grassland as a natural process in this biome. We propose that the current absence of tree species expansion over the grassland in these areas is a result of the resilience of the grassland and of human interferences through expansion of agriculture, ranching and forestry with exotic species. Therefore, conservationist actions should focus on establishing preservation unities that include forest populations and grassland, while environmental management should be applied just in farming areas with historical human interference. Such actions will respect the ecological dynamics of the Pampa and value the forest formations in this grassland-dominated environment.
One of the most important aspects for population ecology and evolution is to understand the connectivity between individuals and their groups. In this study, amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers were employed aiming to examine genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure, and internal gene flow of nine populations of Schinus molle across the Brazilian Pampa. The dispersal capacity of S. molle in the Brazilian Pampa, the implications of the forest fragmentation to species genetic structure, and the impact of the actual genetic structure of the species to its conservation and management were investigated. AFLP markers revealed low genetic diversity and clear genetic structure among populations. Significant fine-scale spatial genetic structure at short distances was observed in all populations. Estimates of gene dispersal distance suggest that the dispersion capacity of this species is larger than the area covered by the studied populations. However, fragmentation hampers the gene flow among populations. The management of S. molle natural occurrence in this biome seems to be simple considering the species plasticity. The conservation of the species genetic resource depends on maintaining the extant forest patches and promoting their connectivity.
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