Information about user preferences plays a key role in automated decision making. In many domains it is desirable to assess such preferences in a qualitative rather than quantitative way. In this paper, we propose a qualitative graphical representation of preferences that reflects conditional dependence and independence of preference statements under a ceteris paribus (all else being equal) interpretation. Such a representation is often compact and arguably quite natural in many circumstances. We provide a formal semantics for this model, and describe how the structure of the network can be exploited in several inference tasks, such as determining whether one outcome dominates (is preferred to) another, ordering a set outcomes according to the preference relation, and constructing the best outcome subject to available evidence.

Planning under uncertainty is a central problem in the study of automated sequential decision making, and has been addressed by researchers in many di erent elds, including AI planning, decision analysis, operations research, control theory and economics. While the assumptions and perspectives adopted in these areas often di er in substantial ways, many planning problems of interest to researchers in these elds can be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs) and analyzed using the techniques of decision theory.This paper presents an overview and synthesis of MDP-related methods, showing how they provide a unifying framework for modeling many classes of planning problems studied in AI. It also describes structural properties of MDPs that, when exhibited by particular classes of problems, can be exploited in the construction of optimal or approximately optimal policies or plans. Planning problems commonly possess structure in the reward and value functions used to describe performance criteria, in the functions used to describe state transitions and observations, and in the relationships among features used to describe states, actions, rewards, and observations. Specialized representations, and algorithms employing these representations, can achieve computational leverage by exploiting these various forms of structure. Certain AI techniques| in particular those based on the use of structured, intensional representations|can be viewed in this way. This paper surveys several types of representations for both classical and decision-theoretic planning problems, and planning algorithms that exploit these representations in a number of di erent ways to ease the computational burden of constructing policies or plans. It focuses primarily on abstraction, aggregation and decomposition techniques based on AI-style representations.

We adopt a utilitarian perspective on social choice, assuming that agents have (possibly latent) utility functions over some space of alternatives. For many reasons one might consider mechanisms, or social choice functions, that only have access to the ordinal rankings of alternatives by the individual agents rather than their utility functions. In this context, one possible objective for a social choice function is the maximization of (expected) social welfare relative to the information contained in these rankings. We study such optimal social choice functions under three different models, and underscore the important role played by scoring functions. In our worst-case model, no assumptions are made about the underlying distribution and we analyze the worst-case distortion-or degree to which the selected alternative does not maximize social welfare-of optimal social choice functions. In our average-case model, we derive optimal functions under neutral (or impartial culture) distributional models. Finally, a very general learning-theoretic model allows for the computation of optimal social choice functions (i.e., that maximize expected social welfare) under arbitrary, sampleable distributions. In the latter case, we provide both algorithms and sample complexity results for the class of scoring functions, and further validate the approach empirically.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) have proven to be popular models for decision-theoretic planning, but standard dynamic programming algorithms for solving MDPs rely on explicit, state-based specifications and computations. To alleviate the combinatorial problems associated with such methods, we propose new representational and computational techniques for MDPs that exploit certain types of problem structure. We use dynamic Bayesian networks (with decision trees representing the local families of conditional probability distributions) to represent stochastic actions in an MDP, together with a decision-tree representation of rewards. Based on this representation, we develop versions of standard dynamic programming algorithms that directly manipulate decision-tree representations of policies and value functions. This generally obviates the need for state-by-state computation, aggregating states at the leaves of these trees and requiring computations only for each aggregate state. The key to these algorithms is a decision-theoretic generalization of classic regression analysis, in which we determine the features relevant to predicting expected value. We demonstrate the method empirically on several planning problems,

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This paper presents a real-time vision-based system to assist a person with dementia wash their hands. The system uses only video inputs, and assistance is given as either verbal or visual prompts, or through the enlistment of a human caregiver's help. The system combines a Bayesian sequential estimation framework for tracking hands and towel, with a decision theoretic framework for computing policies of action. The decision making system is a partially observable Markov decision process, or POMDP. Decision policies dictating system actions are computed in the POMDP using a point-based approximate solution technique. The tracking and decision making systems are coupled using a heuristic method for temporally segmenting the input video stream based on the continuity of the belief state. A key element of the system is the ability to estimate and adapt to user psychological states, such as awareness and responsiveness. We evaluate the system in three ways. First, we evaluate the hand-tracking system by comparing its outputs to manual annotations and to a simple hand-detection method. Second, we test the POMDP solution methods in simulation, and show that our policies have higher expected return than five other heuristic methods. Third, we report results from a ten-week trial with seven persons moderate-to-severe dementia in a long-term care facility in Toronto, Canada. The subjects washed their hands once a day, with assistance given by our automated system, or by a human caregiver, in alternating two-week periods. We give two detailed case study analyses of the system working during trials, and then show agreement between the system and independent human raters of the same trials.

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