This study examines whether and to what extent Australian banks use loan loss provisions (LLPs) for capital, earnings management and signalling. We examine if there were changes in the use of LLPs as a result of the implementation of banking regulations consistent with the Basel Accord of 1988, which made loan loss reserves no longer part of Tier I capital in the numerator of the capital adequacy ratio. We find some evidence to indicate that Australian banks use LLPs for capital management, but we find no evidence of a change in this behaviour after the implementation of the Basel Accord. Our results indicate that banks in Australia use LLPs to manage earnings. Furthermore, listed commercial banks engage more aggressively in earnings management using LLPs than unlisted commercial banks. We also find that earnings management behaviour is more pronounced in the post-Basel period. Overall, we find a significant understating of LLPs in the post-Basel period relative to the pre-Basel period. This indicates that reported earnings might not reflect the true economic reality underlying those numbers. Finally, Australian banks do not appear to use LLPs for signalling future intentions of higher earnings to investors. Copyright (c) The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 AFAANZ.

The objective of this study is to examine whether and to what extent Australian banks use loan loss provisions (LLPs) for capital management, earnings management and signalling. We examine if there were changes in the use of LLPs due to the implementation of banking regulations consistent with the Basel Accord of 1988 which made loan loss reserves no longer part of Tier I capital in the numerator of the capital adequacy ratio. We find some evidence to indicate that Australian banks use LLPs for capital management, but no evidence of a change in this behaviour after the implementation of the Basel Accord. Our results indicate that banks in Australia use LLPs to manage earnings. Further, listed commercial banks engage more aggressively in earnings management using LLPs than unlisted commercial banks. We also find that earnings management behaviour is more pronounced in the post-Basel period. Overall, we find a significant understating of LLPs in the post-Basel period relative to the pre-Basel period. This indicates that reported earnings may not reflect the true economic reality underlying those numbers. Finally, Australian banks do not appear to use LLPs for signalling future intentions of higher earnings to investors.

The paper investigates the relationship between China’s net direct foreign investment position and economic development and the investment development path (IDP) theory introduced by Dunning (1981). Using annual data for the period 1979 to 2005 and a fourth order single variable polynomial function we demonstrate that form of the IDP for China and conclude that China entered stage 3 of the path postulated by the IDP theory. By analyzing key factors which have impacted FDI inflows and outflows we find that certain idiosyncratic characteristics of Chinese companies and institutional factors may limit the significant increase in the multinationalization of Chinese firms which would be required for the country to move along the IDP.

• We would like to thank Drs. Da-Hsien Bao for their useful comments and insights. 1 THE ROLE OF EARNINGS AND BOOK VALUES IN PRICING STOCKS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY AbstractIn this study, we examine factors associated with equity valuation in a newly emerging market, Turkey.In the United States and other developed countries, research indicates that both earnings and book value are important predictors of equity valuation. In Turkey, earnings appears to have information content but earnings, by itself, appears to be declining in importance over time. Book value adjusted for inflation has a stronger association with equity values. In the inflationary and risky environment of Turkey, where future value of earnings is quite uncertain, investors may be paying less attention to earnings and more attention to book values. With respect to the role of book value there are competing explanations. While some researchers conclude that it is only important because it is a control for scale differences, (Barth and Kallapur 1996) others conclude that it is relevant as a proxy for normal earnings (Ohlson 1995). Still others conclude that it is only relevant in the valuation of loss making and generally unsuccessful firms (Berger, Ofek and Swary 1997;Burgstahler and Dichev 1997). The additional contribution of this study is to show that book value is also important as a value proxy for firms operating in environments where there is rampant inflation. Our study also indicates that, overall, earnings and inflation-adjusted book values combined virtually explain almost 75 percent of the variation in equity prices in Turkey.

In this paper we examine the stability of the real exchange rate and the macroeconomic effects of alternative exchange rate regimes, including currency union, on real exchange rate behaviour. We focus on the Irish punt in order to exploit its diversity of experience over different nominal exchange rate regimes. We make both temporal and cross‐country comparisons of real exchange rate stability for the Irish punt with sterling, the US dollar and the German mark. We reach two conclusions on the basis of our results. The first is that for Ireland, as for most other countries, purchasing power parity provides a reasonably good description of actual exchange rate behaviour over the long run. Our second principal conclusion concerns regime effects. Currency union appears to matter. The real exchange rates we analyse are unambiguously less variable under currency union than under alternative exchange rate systems. Otherwise, however, we find no clear‐cut differences in behaviour across regimes.

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It is nearly two decades since economic transformation of the former socialist economies of Eastern and Central Europe and the Baltic states (ECE) began and today most of these countries have joined the European Union (EU). In this paper we analyze characteristics of the banking sector that emerged through the arduous transition process. In many aspects, this sector is similar to that of other countries of the EU but it also varies in significant ways. The very high share of foreign bank ownership is the hallmark of ECE banking. Despite the relative rapid restructuring of the old socialist enterprise financing system, so far the financial depth of ECE countries has remained significantly below the level of other EU members and also below the average of developing countries at a similar income level. Further government policy measures need to address supply and demand conditions so that access to credit is improved both for the aggregate economy and particularly for the small and medium scale sectors.

a b s t r a c tThe object of this paper is to test the performance of the quantitytheory model and the related proposition of monetary neutrality in a context in which, to use Bernanke's phraseology, ''money move [d] for reasons that [were] plausibly unrelated to the current state of the economy.'' We investigate this question using data from two recent episodes of monetary-policy regime change -the move to floating exchange rates throughout the industrialized world following the breakdown of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s and the shift toward less expansive monetary policy that to varying degrees took place in these countries a decade or so later. The results of this exercise are highly positive. The money-price relationship that we observe is fully consistent with theorygrowth shifts in the nominal stock of money and in the price level are highly correlated and bear a one-to-one relation to one another. Growth shifts in exchange rates are significantly related both to growth shifts in relative price levels and to growth shifts in relative excess supplies of money. The classical neutrality proposition -in this context superneutrality -in general, receives strong, though not totally unambiguous, support.