Background The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as "at increased risk of severe COVID-19" in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection-hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection-hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings We estimated that 1•7 billion (UI 1•0-2•4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15-28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186-787) people (4% [3-9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3-12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2-7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk wer...

Few data sources are available to assess the global and regional risk of sequelae from bacterial meningitis. We aimed to estimate the risks of major and minor sequelae caused by bacterial meningitis, estimate the distribution of the different types of sequelae, and compare risk by region and income. We systematically reviewed published papers from 1980 to 2008. Standard global burden of disease categories (cognitive deficit, bilateral hearing loss, motor deficit, seizures, visual impairment, hydrocephalus) were labelled as major sequelae. Less severe, minor sequelae (behavioural problems, learning difficulties, unilateral hearing loss, hypotonia, diplopia), and multiple impairments were also included. 132 papers were selected for inclusion. The median (IQR) risk of at least one major or minor sequela after hospital discharge was 19.9% (12.3-35.3%). The risk of at least one major sequela was 12.8% (7.2-21.1%) and of at least one minor sequela was 8.6% (4.4-15.3%). The median (IQR) risk of at least one major sequela was 24.7% (16.2-35.3%) in pneumococcal meningitis; 9.5% (7.1-15.3%) in Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and 7.2% (4.3-11.2%) in meningococcal meningitis. The most common major sequela was hearing loss (33.9%), and 19.7% had multiple impairments. In the random-effects meta-analysis, all-cause risk of a major sequela was twice as high in the African (pooled risk estimate 25.1% [95% CI 18.9-32.0%]) and southeast Asian regions (21.6% [95% CI 13.1-31.5%]) as in the European region (9.4% [95% CI 7.0-12.3%]; overall I(2)=89.5%, p<0.0001). Risks of long-term disabling sequelae were highest in low-income countries, where the burden of bacterial meningitis is greatest. Most reported sequelae could have been averted by vaccination with Hib, pneumococcal, and meningococcal vaccines.

Although a considerable amount of research has been carried out, many aspects have not been investigated sufficiently. For the time being at least, advice on those aspects has, therefore, to be based on the user's own commonsense and the experience of those who have used or participated in these methods. Even in the long term, some aspects will not be amenable to scientific study. Meanwhile, adherence to best practice will enhance the validity, reliability and impact of the clinical guidelines produced.

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