No abstract

Humans’ ability to efficiently shed heat has enabled us to range over every continent, but a wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35°C marks our upper physiological limit, and much lower values have serious health and productivity impacts. Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century. However, a comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35°C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979. Recent exceedances of 35°C in global maximum sea surface temperature provide further support for the validity of these dangerously high TW values. We find the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time and is correspondingly substantially underestimated in reanalysis products. Our findings thus underscore the serious challenge posed by humid heat that is more intense than previously reported and increasingly severe.

Extreme weather and climate events and their impacts can occur in complex combinations, an interaction shaped by physical drivers and societal forces. In these situations, governance, markets and other decision-making structures-together with population exposure and vulnerability-create nonphysical interconnections among events by linking their impacts, to positive or negative effect. Various anthropogenic actions can also directly affect the severity of events, further complicating these feedback loops. Such relationships are rarely characterized or considered in physical-sciences-based research contexts. Here, we present a multidisciplinary argument for the concept of connected extreme events, and we suggest vantage points and approaches for producing climate information useful in guiding decisions about them.

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the midlatitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

Extremes of wet‐bulb temperature (WBT)—jointly reflecting temperature and specific humidity—have seen relatively little study in terms of climatology, despite their demonstrated relevance for health and economic impacts. In this study, we uncover and characterize distinct spatiotemporal patterns of WBT extremes in the contiguous United States for the 1981–2015 period, focusing on identifying and making a first pass at understanding regional differences. We find that anomalies of specific humidity are of greater importance than those of temperature in controlling extreme WBT in most of the contiguous U.S., particularly for southern and arid regions. Composites of extreme‐WBT days for each region reveal coherent sea‐surface temperature anomalies and midlevel and upper ‐level geopotential‐height anomalies that differ considerably between regions, particularly in terms of the resulting low‐level temperature and moisture fields. These findings suggest that the primary factors controlling the timing and intensity of WBT extremes, while ultimately forced by synoptic‐scale weather patterns, vary spatially according to both local geography and baseline climate. We demonstrate this conclusion by showing how regional features such as late‐summer WBT extremes in the Southwest and southern Great Plains derive primarily from spatial and temporal variations in moist low‐level flows.

Extreme heat can have devastating impacts on built and natural environments including crop losses, wildfire risk, infrastructure damage, and wildlife mortality (e.g.,

This study investigates the historical climatology and future projected change of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and precipitation for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We use a suite of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, historical and RCP8.5 scenarios) and other observations to estimate AR frequency and mean daily precipitation. Despite its arid-to-semi-arid climate, parts of the MENA region experience strong ARs, which contribute a large fraction of the annual precipitation, such as in the mountainous areas of Turkey and Iran. This study shows that by the end of this century, AR frequency is projected to increase (~20–40%) for the North Africa and Mediterranean areas (including any region with higher latitudes than 35 N). However, for these regions, mean daily precipitation (i.e., regardless of the presence of ARs) is projected to decrease (~15–30%). For the rest of the MENA region, including the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, minor changes in AR frequency (±10%) are expected, yet mean precipitation is projected to increase (~50%) for these regions. Overall, the projected sign of change in AR frequency is opposite to the projected sign of change in mean daily precipitation for most areas within the MENA region.

Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges of climate change. Situations in which hazards occur close enough to one another to result in amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or because hazards themselves are made more severe, are of special concern. We consider projected changes in such compounding hazards using the MPI Grand Ensemble under the moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, which produces warming of about 2.25°C between pre-industrial (1851-1880) and 2100. We find that extreme heat events occurring on 3 or more consecutive days increase in frequency by 100-300%, and consecutive extreme precipitation events increase in most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance of concurrent heat and drought leading to simultaneous maize failures in 3 or more breadbasket regions increases by about 50%, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% more likely across much of the subtropics. Our results highlight the importance of taking compounding climate extremes into account when looking at possible tipping points of socio-environmental systems.