Household air pollution from traditional cook stoves presents a greater health hazard than any other environmental factor. Despite government e orts to support clean-burning cooking fuels, over 700 million people in South Asia could still rely on traditional stoves in 2030. This number could rise if climate change mitigation e orts increase energy costs. Here we quantify the costs of support policies to make clean cooking a ordable to all South Asians under four increasingly stringent climate policy scenarios. Our most stringent mitigation scenario increases clean fuel costs 38% in 2030 relative to the baseline, keeping 21% more South Asians on traditional stoves or increasing the minimum support policy cost to achieve universal clean cooking by up to 44%. The extent of this increase depends on how policymakers allocate subsidies between clean fuels and stoves. These additional costs are within the range of financial transfers to South Asia estimated in e orts-sharing scenarios of international climate agreements.

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Kerosene subsidy reform is a key policy concern in India and other developing countries. As kerosene is widely used for lighting in India, any price change will likely have considerable public welfare impacts on the large fraction of the poor who do not have access to reliable electricity supply for lighting. In this study, we assess historic kerosene use for residential lighting across population groups separated by urban/rural, expenditure, and electricity service levels using data from India. Consumption trends are used to inform a service demand model and evaluate how changes in fuel price, electricity connection, and supply reliability influence environmental, health and economic outcomes. We find that users relying on kerosene for supplemental lighting-in combination ('stacked') with electricity-accounted for 64% of residential kerosene consumed for lighting in 2005. Tested scenarios that addressed service needs of supplemental users had the greatest welfare benefits, especially in the future. Scenarios reducing PM 2.5 emissions from kerosene lighting can avert between 50 and 300 thousand disability adjusted life years relative to a baseline scenario in 2030. Lighting kerosene is highly price sensitive, resulting in a drop in demand of 97% in a scenario in which current subsidies are phased out by 2030. Deadweight loss of the subsidy in 2005 is estimated at $200-950 million, with three quarters attributable to supplemental kerosene lighting. Support for cleaner lighting technologies not reliant on fossil fuel subsidies would appear to be 'no regrets' or 'co-benefits' options for India, and could be implemented in parallel with subsidy removal.

The Central American nations of Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are among the poorest in the Americas. While the fraction of population dependent on solid fuels has declined in these nations over the last 25 years, the number of people using them has risen. Here, we first assess current patterns of cooking energy use in these nations. We then apply a discrete model of household cooking choices and demand to simulate future pathways of clean cooking uptake and the outlook for achieving target 7.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which aims to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030. We find that by 2030, ensuing income growth is likely to enable 90% of urban populations in these nations to switch to using modern cooking energy services. However, without supporting policies, between 40% to 50% of rural Guatemalans and Hondurans, while over two-thirds of rural Nicaraguans, are likely to find clean fuels or stoves unaffordable in 2030. A targeted subsidy on modern fuels, like liquid petroleum gas (LPG), is the most effective policy mechanism we studied that could provide such support. A 50% subsidy policy on LPG targeted to the rural and urban poor population could, by 2030, make cooking with LPG affordable to an additional 7.3 million people in these countries. We estimate that such a policy would cost about $250 million per year and would have negligible greenhouse gas emissions impacts. Such a policy could also have significant health benefits, preventing about 8,890 premature deaths annually from reduced exposure to cooking-related household pollution in 2030.