It has been widely observed that adult men of all ages are at higher risk of developing serious complications from COVID-19 when compared with women. This study aimed to investigate the association of COVID-19 positivity and severity with estrogen exposure in women, in a population based matched cohort study of female users of the COVID Symptom Study application in the UK. Analyses included 152,637 women for menopausal status, 295,689 women for exogenous estrogen intake in the form of the combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP), and 151,193 menopausal women for hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Data were collected using the COVID Symptom Study in May-June 2020. Analyses investigated associations between predicted or tested COVID-19 status and menopausal status, COCP use, and HRT use, adjusting for age, smoking and BMI, with follow-up age sensitivity analysis, and validation in a subset of participants from the TwinsUK cohort. Menopausal women had higher rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 0.003). COCP-users had lower rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 8.03E-05), with reduction in hospital attendance (P = 0.023). Menopausal women using HRT or hormonal therapies did not exhibit consistent associations, including increased rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 2.22E-05) for HRT users alone. The findings support a protective effect of estrogen exposure on COVID-19, based on positive association between predicted COVID-19 with menopausal status, and negative association with COCP use. HRT use was positively associated with COVID-19, but the results should be considered with caution due to lack of data on HRT type, route of administration, duration of treatment, and potential unaccounted for confounders and comorbidities.

Linking epigenetic marks to clinical outcomes improves insight into molecular processes, disease prediction, and therapeutic target identification. Here, a statistical approach is presented to infer the epigenetic architecture of complex disease, determine the variation captured by epigenetic effects, and estimate phenotype-epigenetic probe associations jointly. Implicitly adjusting for probe correlations, data structure (cell-count or relatedness), and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker effects, improves association estimates and in 9,448 individuals, 75.7% (95% CI 71.70–79.3) of body mass index (BMI) variation and 45.6% (95% CI 37.3–51.9) of cigarette consumption variation was captured by whole blood methylation array data. Pathway-linked probes of blood cholesterol, lipid transport and sterol metabolism for BMI, and xenobiotic stimuli response for smoking, showed >1.5 times larger associations with >95% posterior inclusion probability. Prediction accuracy improved by 28.7% for BMI and 10.2% for smoking over a LASSO model, with age-, and tissue-specificity, implying associations are a phenotypic consequence rather than causal.

Background Smoking remains one of the leading preventable causes of death. Smoking leaves a strong signature on the blood methylome as shown in multiple studies using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. Here, we explore novel blood methylation smoking signals on the Illumina MethylationEPIC BeadChip (EPIC) array, which also targets novel CpG-sites in enhancers. Method A smoking-methylation meta-analysis was carried out using EPIC DNA methylation profiles in 1407 blood samples from four UK population-based cohorts, including the MRC National Survey for Health and Development (NSHD) or 1946 British birth cohort, the National Child Development Study (NCDS) or 1958 birth cohort, the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70), and the TwinsUK cohort (TwinsUK). The overall discovery sample included 269 current, 497 former, and 643 never smokers. Replication was pursued in 3425 trans-ethnic samples, including 2325 American Indian individuals participating in the Strong Heart Study (SHS) in 1989–1991 and 1100 African-American participants in the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy Study (GENOA). Results Altogether 952 CpG-sites in 500 genes were differentially methylated between smokers and never smokers after Bonferroni correction. There were 526 novel smoking-associated CpG-sites only profiled by the EPIC array, of which 486 (92%) replicated in a meta-analysis of the American Indian and African-American samples. Novel CpG sites mapped both to genes containing previously identified smoking-methylation signals and to 80 novel genes not previously linked to smoking, with the strongest novel signal in SLAMF7. Comparison of former versus never smokers identified that 37 of these sites were persistently differentially methylated after cessation, where 16 represented novel signals only profiled by the EPIC array. We observed a depletion of smoking-associated signals in CpG islands and an enrichment in enhancer regions, consistent with previous results. Conclusion This study identified novel smoking-associated signals as possible biomarkers of exposure to smoking and may help improve our understanding of smoking-related disease risk.

Background: Men and older women have been shown to be at higher risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Animal model studies of SARS-CoV and MERS suggest that the age and sex difference in COVID-19 symptom severity may be due to a protective effect of the female sex hormone estrogen. Females have shown an ability to mount a stronger immune response to a variety of viral infections because of more robust humoral and cellular immune responses. Objectives: We sought to determine whether COVID-19 positivity increases in women entering menopause. We also aimed to identify whether premenopausal women taking exogenous hormones in the form of the combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP) and post-menopausal women taking hormone replacement therapy (HRT) have lower predicted rates of COVID-19, using our published symptom-based model. Design: The COVID Symptom Study developed by Kings College London and Zoe Global Limited was launched in the UK on 24th March 2020. It captured self-reported information related to COVID-19 symptoms. Data used for this study included records collected between 7th May - 15th June 2020. Main outcome measures: We investigated links between COVID-19 rates and 1) menopausal status, 2) COCP use and 3) HRT use, using symptom-based predicted COVID-19, tested COVID-19, and disease severity based on requirement for hospital attendance or respiratory support. Participants: Female users of the COVID Symptom Tracker Application in the UK, including 152,637 women for menopause status, 295,689 for COCP use, and 151,193 for HRT use. Analyses were adjusted for age, smoking and BMI. Results: Post-menopausal women aged 40-60 years had a higher rate of predicted COVID (P=0.003) and a corresponding range of symptoms, with consistent, but not significant trends observed for tested COVID-19 and disease severity. Women aged 18-45 years taking COCP had a significantly lower predicted COVID-19 (P=8.03E-05), with a reduction in hospital attendance (P=0.023). Post-menopausal women using HRT or hormonal therapies did not exhibit consistent associations, including increased rates of predicted COVID-19 (P=2.22E-05) for HRT users alone. Conclusions: Our findings support a protective effect of estrogen on COVID-19, based on positive association between predicted COVID-19 and menopausal status, and a negative association with COCP use. HRT use was positively associated with COVID-19 symptoms; however, the results should be considered with caution due to lack of data on HRT type, route of administration, duration of treatment, and potential comorbidities. Trial registration: The App Ethics has been approved by KCL ethics Committee REMAS ID 18210, review reference LRS-19/20-18210

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Background:Ageing is a heterogenous process characterised by cellular and molecular hallmarks, including changes to haematopoietic stem cells and is a primary risk factor for chronic diseases. X chromosome inactivation (XCI) randomly transcriptionally silences either the maternal or paternal X in each cell of 46, XX females to balance the gene expression with 46, XY males. Age acquired XCI-skew describes the preferential selection of cells across a tissue resulting in an imbalance of XCI, which is particularly prevalent in blood tissues of ageing females, and yet its clinical consequences are unknown.Methods:We assayed XCI in 1575 females from the TwinsUK population cohort using DNA extracted from whole blood. We employed prospective, cross-sectional, and intra-twin study designs to characterise the relationship of XCI-skew with molecular and cellular measures of ageing, cardiovascular disease risk, and cancer diagnosis.Results:We demonstrate that XCI-skew is independent of traditional markers of biological ageing and is associated with a haematopoietic bias towards the myeloid lineage. Using an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, which captures traditional risk factors, XCI-skew is associated with an increased cardiovascular disease risk both cross-sectionally and within XCI-skew discordant twin pairs. In a prospective 10 year follow-up study, XCI-skew is predictive of future cancer incidence.Conclusions:Our study demonstrates that age acquired XCI-skew captures changes to the haematopoietic stem cell population and has clinical potential as a unique biomarker of chronic disease risk.Funding:KSS acknowledges funding from the Medical Research Council [MR/M004422/1 and MR/R023131/1]. JTB acknowledges funding from the ESRC [ES/N000404/1]. MM acknowledges funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-funded BioResource, Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London. TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, European Union, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Global Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-funded BioResource, Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London.

BackgroundAgeing is a heterogenous process characterised by cellular and molecular hallmarks, including changes to haematopoietic stem cells, and is a primary risk factor for chronic diseases. X chromosome inactivation (XCI) randomly transcriptionally silences either the maternal or paternal X in each cell of XX,46 females to balance the gene expression with XY,46 males. Age acquired XCI-skew describes the preferential inactivation of one X chromosome across a tissue, which is particularly prevalent in blood tissues of ageing females and yet its clinical consequences are unknown.MethodsWe assayed XCI in 1,575 females from the TwinsUK population cohort and employed prospective, cross-sectional, and intra-twin designs to characterise the relationship of XCI-skew with molecular, cellular, and organismal measures of ageing, and cardiovascular disease risk and cancer diagnosis.ResultsWe demonstrate that XCI-skew is independent of traditional markers of biological ageing and is associated with a haematopoietic bias towards the myeloid lineage. Using an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, which captures traditional risk factors, XCI-skew is associated with an increased cardiovascular disease risk both cross-sectionally and within XCI-skew discordant twin pairs. In a prospective 10-year follow-up study, XCI-skew is predictive of future cancer incidence.ConclusionsOur study demonstrates that age acquired XCI-skew captures changes to the haematopoietic stem cell population and has clinical potential as a unique biomarker of chronic disease risk.FundingKSS acknowledges funding from the Medical Research Council (MR/M004422/1 and MR/R023131/1). JTB acknowledges funding from the ESRC (ES/N000404/1). MM acknowledges funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-funded BioResource, Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London. TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, European Union, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Global Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-funded BioResource, Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London.

Background There is considerable evidence for the importance of the DNA methylome in metabolic health, for example, a robust methylation signature has been associated with body mass index (BMI). However, visceral fat (VF) mass accumulation is a greater risk factor for metabolic disease than BMI alone. In this study, we dissect the subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) methylome signature relevant to metabolic health by focusing on VF as the major risk factor of metabolic disease. We integrate results with genetic, blood methylation, SAT gene expression, blood metabolomic, dietary intake and metabolic phenotype data to assess and quantify genetic and environmental drivers of the identified signals, as well as their potential functional roles. Methods Epigenome-wide association analyses were carried out to determine visceral fat mass-associated differentially methylated positions (VF-DMPs) in SAT samples from 538 TwinsUK participants. Validation and replication were performed in 333 individuals from 3 independent cohorts. To assess functional impacts of the VF-DMPs, the association between VF and gene expression was determined at the genes annotated to the VF-DMPs and an association analysis was carried out to determine whether methylation at the VF-DMPs is associated with gene expression. Further epigenetic analyses were carried out to compare methylation levels at the VF-DMPs as the response variables and a range of different metabolic health phenotypes including android:gynoid fat ratio (AGR), lipids, blood metabolomic profiles, insulin resistance, T2D and dietary intake variables. The results from all analyses were integrated to identify signals that exhibit altered SAT function and have strong relevance to metabolic health. Results We identified 1181 CpG positions in 788 genes to be differentially methylated with VF (VF-DMPs) with significant enrichment in the insulin signalling pathway. Follow-up cross-omic analysis of VF-DMPs integrating genetics, gene expression, metabolomics, diet, and metabolic traits highlighted VF-DMPs located in 9 genes with strong relevance to metabolic disease mechanisms, with replication of signals in FASN, SREBF1, TAGLN2, PC and CFAP410. PC methylation showed evidence for mediating effects of diet on VF. FASN DNA methylation exhibited putative causal effects on VF that were also strongly associated with insulin resistance and methylation levels in FASN better classified insulin resistance (AUC=0.91) than BMI or VF alone. Conclusions Our findings help characterise the adiposity-associated methylation signature of SAT, with insights for metabolic disease risk.